Pricing of cars/trucks going to collapse?

[Pelican]

I’m beginning to wonder whether we will see collapsing vehicle prices within a year…at least a real possibility.

Some things to consider:

- Foxconn (world’s largest manufacturer and maker of iphone) plans to manufacture EV skateboards
- Skateboards will become interchangeable, almost like the old electric race car toys
- Chinese are ramping up EV production in a big way, take a look at this link:
https://companiesmarketcap.com/automakers/largest-automakers-by-market-cap/
- Pent up demand will eventually wane, and discounts return
- Manufacturing plants (cars & batteries) are all coming online around the same time
- It will be harder to justify paying extra for brand (look at VW and Audi, ID4 vs. Q4)
- Trucks have become overpriced and most people don’t regularly haul things, with energy prices going up they will become harder to justify (gas or electric). Example: I can buy a decent Mercedes or BMW for the same price as a Lariat.

I think this will happen and it is only a matter of timing. Thoughts?

, but "I can buy a decent Mercedes or BMW for the same price as a Lariat." IMHO, I prefer my Lariat as I can do more with it, it's a lot cheaper to fix, has a fully boxed frame (hit by 2 drunks in my life), it won't rust as quickly becasue it sits up higher. I just don't see the value in Mercedes or BMW. I have no interest in owned one, but a good number of my friends do.

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[Mtnman1]

I see an EV Glut in 4-6 years along with a bubble bursting. Everyone seems to be trying to ramp up to build a million EV's within 5 years and when all that comes on line and the backlogs are caught up there will be a huge glut. It's like the 2000 internet bubble that wiped out many huge tech companies who overbuilt capacity.

The sucky part of the journey there for customers is going to be all the proprietary flip flopping around with battery technology, voltage standards, charging standards and such. Eventually they'll narrow things down and get semi standardized ala the USB-c Phone charger, but until then it'll be a mess.

Hopefully in 10 years batteries and motors will get to the point where they're semi-interchangeable and aftermarket options come out. It's possible carmakers could ultimately become more of glorified chassis makers.

Notnto mention when thise EV's need their batteries replaced. People bitch about a 6k replair bill. Wait till they see a 25k bill.

 

[Snakebitten]

Trucks, at least where I have spent well past a half a century, are more than just utility. They are cultural. They are almost a "Camry in every driveway", if you know what I mean.

As for becoming too expensive?

Ummmmm, that's because the consumer has voted that IF you will stuff all the luxuries and conveniences that they previously could only access in a luxury vehicle, they WILL pay for it.

Or put another way, that F150 Platinum is really an F150 with $35,000 of OPTIONS.
You do NOT have to pay $75k for an F150 that is very much the same TRUCK underneath.

I'm not saying inflation isn't real. I'm not saying profit margins aren't higher on the fully dolled up trucks. But I am saying that the only reason they have gotten more expensive is the SAME reason expensive vehicles were expensive in the first place. They are amazingly packed with creature comforts.

 

[jefro]

I still want to know what will happen to all those stockpiled cars and trucks in fields we heard about. Will they send them overseas or try to slide 2 year old trucks on the lot with new chips?

 

[FordLightningMan]

There is no question that EVs will take nearly 5 years to meet demand. Tesla has the highest profit margin of any vehicle and other EVs are wide as well, there is definitely room to remain profitable while throwing in some discounts when supply meets demand. As the technology ages, EVs will also be cheaper to produce and real entry-level EVs will come to market. Tesla needed to offer the fastest car on the road to lure people to EVs, in 5-7 years there will be a lot more entry options that compete on value first and foremost. Other than one or two surprise manufacturers who suceed or fail, this whole cycle is very predictable.

My question is what will happen to ICE when more people move to EV? Will the automakers plan production correctly and start slowing ICE manufacturing? Or will there be lots full of ICE that people are getting deeply discounted, perhaps wooing people away from their first EV purchase? Might ICE manufacturing be slowed too soon, where people are paying huge ADM to get the last wave of non-EVs which will theoretically be the peak form of ICE technology? I think how ICE plays out is significantly more unpredictable and interesting than EV.

 

[Fordskeptic]

If I could predict the market, I would not be on this forum hoping to get the lowly Pro, someday. Carry on.

 

[Regular150]

Purely ICE will surely taper off, but Hybrids will be here for decades to come until battery tech goes next level. Weight, speed to charge, cost are each to be watched for those breakthroughs.

 

[rdr854]

I still want to know what will happen to all those stockpiled cars and trucks in fields we heard about. Will they send them overseas or try to slide 2 year old trucks on the lot with new chips?

I was just at my local Chevy dealer who just received a 2022 Silverado that was assembled in March 2021. I guess the OEMs are still working on their stored trucks.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

Purely ICE will surely taper off, but Hybrids will be here for decades to come until battery tech goes next level. Weight, speed to charge, cost are each to be watched for those breakthroughs.

A few rust bucket hybrids and ICE will still be around decades from now, but new ones will simply not sell after 2030, battery tech will have improved to the point where buying ICE=buying horse.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

There is no question that EVs will take nearly 5 years to meet demand. Tesla has the highest profit margin of any vehicle and other EVs are wide as well, there is definitely room to remain profitable while throwing in some discounts when supply meets demand. As the technology ages, EVs will also be cheaper to produce and real entry-level EVs will come to market. Tesla needed to offer the fastest car on the road to lure people to EVs, in 5-7 years there will be a lot more entry options that compete on value first and foremost. Other than one or two surprise manufacturers who suceed or fail, this whole cycle is very predictable.

My question is what will happen to ICE when more people move to EV? Will the automakers plan production correctly and start slowing ICE manufacturing? Or will there be lots full of ICE that people are getting deeply discounted, perhaps wooing people away from their first EV purchase? Might ICE manufacturing be slowed too soon, where people are paying huge ADM to get the last wave of non-EVs which will theoretically be the peak form of ICE technology? I think how ICE plays out is significantly more unpredictable and interesting than EV.

ICE will crash by 2030: as BEV becomes cheaper than ICE to make, manufacturers will use the magic power of advertising to push everyone into BEV. See also: Ford separating their divisions so they can give ICE a quiet and less embarrassing funeral.

 

[Snakebitten]

Wish I could get one of them crystal balls. You know, the one that comes with such certainty. ???

 

[Tony Burgh]

Almost all households today have multiple vehicles. Our plan is one ICE and one BEV. You don’t have to bet one way or the other, hedge your bets.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

Yep, each their own.

 

[F150ROD]

ICE with a manual transmission will always be desirable. Every Charger, Challenger and Mustang out today will be desirable. It all depends on what you are looking for. SRT Jeeps and Durangos, yes please. Raptors, Tremors all desirable. We’ll see how the Lightning performs and if it will truly make people forget about ICE trucks.

As far as future ICE vehicles, those will die a fast death. Corollas, Civics, Mazda3’s will be moving to an EV platform much quicker than we think.

 

[Snakebitten]

I WILL be an EV'r. I am not in denial.

But gas could be $10 gallon and I will still go to the barn when I get the itch and go wail on them shifting gears.

Admittedly I am old and probably don't have kids that feel the same. So I'm going out clutching it. Lol

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