A theory about range and battery size...

[DadBald]

Lots of speculation about actual range of the production units. The target, as I understand it, is 300 miles for the ER battery, laden with ~1000lbs payload. There have been lots of "spy" photos and fuzzy math projecting 400-450 miles of range (or more!) on an unladen truck. A couple points:

1. This speculation has been based almost entirely on photos and sightings of pre-production trucks, so it could certainly change

2. Reports from the reservation-holders invite events have quoted Ford reps stating load doesn't really affect range much, and neither does towing... Except for hills.

My theory is that Ford is looking for that sweet spot in battery size (cost) and range. They've obtained 160,000+ reservations on the premise of a 300mi range vehicle (or whatever the SR battery is shooting for). They have no incentive to go beyond that, really. If their ER pre-production trucks were getting 450 miles, the best business decision would be to reduce the size of the battery to save on costs and maximize profits.

Based on the Ford rep comments above, it seems unlikely that payload will impact range by +/-50%. Sadly, I just don't see Ford giving us a 400+mile truck. I'm not holding my breath. I'll bet Ford hits 300-315 miles on the EPA test. Basically dead nuts on target, or +/- 5% at worst.

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[sotek2345]

Lots of speculation about actual range of the production units. The target, as I understand it, is 300 miles for the ER battery, laden with ~1000lbs payload. There have been lots of "spy" photos and fuzzy math projecting 400-450 miles of range (or more!) on an unladen truck. A couple points:

1. This speculation has been based almost entirely on photos and sightings of pre-production trucks, so it could certainly change

2. Reports from the reservation-holders invite events have quoted Ford reps stating load doesn't really affect range much, and neither does towing... Except for hills.

My theory is that Ford is looking for that sweet spot in battery size (cost) and range. They've obtained 160,000+ reservations on the premise of a 300mi range vehicle (or whatever the SR battery is shooting for). They have no incentive to go beyond that, really. If their ER pre-production trucks were getting 450 miles, the best business decision would be to reduce the size of the battery to save on costs and maximize profits.

Based on the Ford rep comments above, it seems unlikely that payload will impact range by +/-50%. Sadly, I just don't see Ford giving us a 400+mile truck. I'm not holding my breath. I'll bet Ford hits 300-315 miles on the EPA test. Basically dead nuts on target, or +/- 5% at worst.

Agree on your conclusion, but I would bet money the battery design has been finalized well before now. To me the simplest explanation is that the Prototypes are running Mach-e software and not properly calculating the range.

 

[Hemitoeco]

Not sure I’d keep my reservation if they were going to be making deliveries in 6 months and still didn’t have the battery finalized.

 

[DadBald]

The batteries are big complex units manufactured by others, so I'll give you that. I do feel like there's usually lots of changes leading up to just before mainstream production though. It would be easy to just remove a cell or two from the pack also, doesn't necessarily have to be a complete redesign.

 

[cts888]

If a ford rep said that towing doesn't really affect range much then they are completely clueless. A small 5000lb trailer will cut the range in half there's just no way around that.

I was at a ford event and the rep told me they are targeting around 130kwh for the battery size of the extended range model and 90-100kwh for the standard range model. Based on those sizes it would be very surprising to see the truck hit 300 miles on the EPA if you compare it to the Rivian or pretty much any other EV out there. I am thinking the combined EPA barely hits 300 but real world range will be 250 or so with the EXT battery. I am hopeful of more but I have owned a Nissan leaf, chevy bolt and a model 3 (none of which hit their EPA on the highway at 70mph) and I am not getting my hopes up that a massive truck will go further than 250 miles on the highway.

 

[beatle]

If I drive my Model S with the sunroof open or the windows down, the energy consumption goes up. Towing will make a big difference. Perhaps not as big of a difference as towing with a smaller vehicle, but still a very noticeable change. The F150L has a much bigger reference area so it is effectively blocking the flow of air for whatever it is towing.

The EPA test does not include a payload.

As for EPA vs. real world, we'll just have to see. The MachE being able to exceed its EPA range in 3rd party tests is reassuring that we'll actually get 300 miles out of the F150L with its big battery. I don't know where you're getting a 400+ mile estimate from.

As for making changes to the battery, there is a lot more than just "taking a cell out" since there is a domino effect of other vehicle changes that result from doing that. The voltage will need to maintain the same overall, the BMS will need to compensate for the reduced C rating of the overall pack with less capacity, the suspension may even be different to account for the different weight, and the cooling system may undergo changes. At this point I would not expect any changes to the battery or range estimate.

 

[vandy1981]

Ford has a history of exceeding EPA range with the Mach-E and I'd expect the same with the F150L.

I would be surprised if the gross capacity of the battery wasn't locked in at this point. Net (usable) capacity may change based on pre-production vehicle testing, depending on how conservative they want to be with the battery buffer.

1000 pounds of payload will have a much lower impact on range than towing a 1000 pound trailer due to aero issues.

 

[SteffanG]

They may be targeting 300miles for release with a larger than normal buffer on the battery, then as they get a lot more data on how the batteries are doing they will release a lot of that buffer with OTA allowing for a increase in range.
It could be that the pre-production trucks don't have a buffer on the battery as they only have to last a year or two so longevity and degradation doesn't matter much on them.

I can't see Ford changing anything major like the battery, suspension, motors, ect as it would have a huge effect on all the testing they have done. Simply removing one pack of cells could have a massive effect on how the truck drives and the life of the battery from what they have tested. They have done too much testing at this point and it is too close to shipping to change something big on the drive train unless there are issues with it that are being fixed.

 

[metroshot]

They may be targeting 300miles for release with a larger than normal buffer on the battery, then as they get a lot more data on how the batteries are doing they will release a lot of that buffer with OTA allowing for a increase in range.
It could be that the pre-production trucks don't have a buffer on the battery as they only have to last a year or two so longevity and degradation doesn't matter much on them.

I can't see Ford changing anything major like the battery, suspension, motors, ect as it would have a huge effect on all the testing they have done. Simply removing one pack of cells could have a massive effect on how the truck drives and the life of the battery from what they have tested. They have done too much testing at this point and it is too close to shipping to change something big on the drive train unless there are issues with it that are being fixed.

Agreed, the range will change with the final production model as well as any changes that the software designers make OTA during it's life cycle.

Like @sotek2345 said, these pre-production trucks are probably using MME software and tweaking them to adapt better for the F150L.

Much like the Chevy Bolts that had battery fires during the recall - the engineers changed the charge capacity limit to less than 80-90% which altered the total range per charge.

My current drive is a PHEV and it sends data like crazy to the manufacturer and in turn the software gets updated OTA. So far very happy with mine - even after 3 years, still getting 110-120% range than advertised.

 

[Roy2001]

If a ford rep said that towing doesn't really affect range much then they are completely clueless. A small 5000lb trailer will cut the range in half there's just no way around that.

I was at a ford event and the rep told me they are targeting around 130kwh for the battery size of the extended range model and 90-100kwh for the standard range model. Based on those sizes it would be very surprising to see the truck hit 300 miles on the EPA if you compare it to the Rivian or pretty much any other EV out there. I am thinking the combined EPA barely hits 300 but real world range will be 250 or so with the EXT battery.

Ford can barely hit 65MPGe, or 2 miles per kWh. I assume battery size would be 120kWh/155kWh with usable capacity 115kWh/150kWh.

 

[astricklin]

Towing a camper trailer will most certainly affect the range much more than a flatbed trailer will. Simple physics regarding air resistance isn't just going to disappear. I would expect a 50% or so reduction in range towing a typical 25-30 foot camper trailer as this is what most people see with their ice trucks. Of course the more aerodynamic the trailer, the less of a reduction.

 

[cts888]

I agree with you, that's just not what the rep told me. Maybe he was off, but he knew what he was talking about with everything else. If the standard range is 100kwh usable then they will have a very difficult time getting 230 miles out of a charge

 

[RonTCat]

The batteries are big complex units manufactured by others, so I'll give you that. I do feel like there's usually lots of changes leading up to just before mainstream production though. It would be easy to just remove a cell or two from the pack also, doesn't necessarily have to be a complete redesign.

Your speculation is not that bad, actually...

No way there will be battery changes at this point. You are just completing the official range tests, etc. at this point. Everything design-wise is locked in.

The 450 mile range thing is great internet fantasy. Maybe at constant 25mph, downhill, at 72 degrees. And a tailwind.

When the company announces 300 miles of range, that is not a guess. You test the living crap out of prototype vehicles, so there is no need to guess. The company knows.

 

[MickeyAO]

Lots of speculation about actual range of the production units. The target, as I understand it, is 300 miles for the ER battery, laden with ~1000lbs payload. There have been lots of "spy" photos and fuzzy math projecting 400-450 miles of range (or more!) on an unladen truck. A couple points:

1. This speculation has been based almost entirely on photos and sightings of pre-production trucks, so it could certainly change

2. Reports from the reservation-holders invite events have quoted Ford reps stating load doesn't really affect range much, and neither does towing... Except for hills.

My theory is that Ford is looking for that sweet spot in battery size (cost) and range. They've obtained 160,000+ reservations on the premise of a 300mi range vehicle (or whatever the SR battery is shooting for). They have no incentive to go beyond that, really. If their ER pre-production trucks were getting 450 miles, the best business decision would be to reduce the size of the battery to save on costs and maximize profits.

Based on the Ford rep comments above, it seems unlikely that payload will impact range by +/-50%. Sadly, I just don't see Ford giving us a 400+mile truck. I'm not holding my breath. I'll bet Ford hits 300-315 miles on the EPA test. Basically dead nuts on target, or +/- 5% at worst.

Here's a theory for you...the batteries are already in production, so the capacity is already set. Ford will release the EPA ranges AFTER it runs ALL the EPA drive cycles to determine the EPA range.

 

[MickeyAO]

It would be easy to just remove a cell or two from the pack also, doesn't necessarily have to be a complete redesign.

No, it is not easy and would require a complete redo of ALL the SAE safety tests before releasing to the public.

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