Wave 3 Feb 3rd ~ XLT SR

[rodhx]

Why would someone make a buying decision based on a wildly unrealistic worst case scenario?

People do it all the time. That’s one reason there are so many full size trucks & suvs driven five miles to malls, schools, & grocery stores every day. ?

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[SmoothJ]

Why would someone make a buying decision based on a wildly unrealistic worst case scenario?

Cause crap happens… lol. Anyway, regardless of the trim, I would of went with the larger battery and usually kept it around 90% SoC. If something does come up, I know I have the ability to address it. I used to have a Kia Soul EV and had a small 30 kWh or so battery pack. So I know range anxiety first hand…

 

[FordLightningMan]

For a very select group that commutes 5 hours for work each day or drives all day while working, I don't think EVs are ready for these people yet. SR or ER, it doesn't matter, for this very small group of people you should wait. With that said, we're talking < 1% of commuters that meets this criteria. The vast majority of people will be served just fine by SR, whereas some people certainly do need the ER. Ironically, most people who get an ER will never justify their expensive purchase based on real world usage.

If you are afraid about EVs for road trips, I ask WHY ARE YOU TAKING YOUR OWN VEHICLE ON A ROAD TRIP!?!?!? Take a quick look at depreciation cost per mile, you'd be absolutely insane to put that cost on the truck you own if you are driving 1,000+ miles in a week. Unless you have a beater and don't care if it dies on the trip or you drive your car for 10+ years and resale means nothing, springing $200 on a weekly rental to drive 1,000+ miles is mathematically always the right decision. I own ICE and EV, I've taken 20 road trips in my life and rented each time, because it just doesn't make sense financially to do anything else.

 

[LightningShow]

People do it all the time. That’s one reason there are so many full size trucks & suvs driven five miles to malls, schools, & grocery stores every day. ?

I mean, people make decisions on what they are willing to pay for. That's different for everyone and largely emotional. No one needs a vehicle that goes 0-60 in 4 seconds but they sell like hotcakes because people *like* to go 0-60 in 4 seconds and they can *afford* a car that does. That doesn't mean you use some extreme outlier case in your analysis. If you want a car that goes 0-60 in 4 seconds do you shop for a car that goes 0-60 in 3 seconds because it can do it in 4 seconds when it's 110 degrees out and you have 4 passengers in the car and it's full of luggage and the road is wet? Of course not, you base your decisions on the *expected* performance, maybe with a little buffer if you're conservative in your decision making.

In this particular case, the person doing the analysis made bad assumptions (like the vehicle is only "usable" from 20-80% charge ) and then layered on several outlier cases. Any one of which is unlikely, but putting several together makes it *astronomically* unlikely. Keeping the vehicle for 10 years (which is by far the most likely of the assumptions), 20% range degradation, 50% range loss in cold weather. I think there were others but I can't remember. There is no reasonably foreseeable circumstance where a vehicle with 300 mile EPA range can only be driven 90 miles, on a full charge, in normal driving circumstances. I do concede it's theoretically possible though it's also theoretically possible, and much more likely, that the battery catches on fire and burns your house down. So, probably best not to buy any EV, ever.

 

[shocker]

As an owner of a 238 mile EPA EV, it's extended range or nothing. YMMV.

 

[hturnerfamily]

coming from two Nissan Leaf original models with 70 mile range, I'll have NO range anxiety with my new Lightning : )

 

[sotek2345]

For a very select group that commutes 5 hours for work each day or drives all day while working, I don't think EVs are ready for these people yet. SR or ER, it doesn't matter, for this very small group of people you should wait. With that said, we're talking < 1% of commuters that meets this criteria. The vast majority of people will be served just fine by SR, whereas some people certainly do need the ER. Ironically, most people who get an ER will never justify their expensive purchase based on real world usage.

If you are afraid about EVs for road trips, I ask WHY ARE YOU TAKING YOUR OWN VEHICLE ON A ROAD TRIP!?!?!? Take a quick look at depreciation cost per mile, you'd be absolutely insane to put that cost on the truck you own if you are driving 1,000+ miles in a week. Unless you have a beater and don't care if it dies on the trip or you drive your car for 10+ years and resale means nothing, springing $200 on a weekly rental to drive 1,000+ miles is mathematically always the right decision. I own ICE and EV, I've taken 20 road trips in my life and rented each time, because it just doesn't make sense financially to do anything else.

Because a $200 weekly rental is a cheap econobox car with no space and no comfort, and likely dubious mechanical soundness. If I am driving longer distances, I want something with room, comfort, safety features, etc. Even better if I am familiar with it.

 

[LightningShow]

Yeah, i was going to say the same thing. A decent rental for a family is going to cost closer to $200/day than $200/week. I quickly looked at a week rental from the closest rental place to me. A full size SUV or minivan was $800 for a week.

 

[FordLightningMan]

Weekly rental for a full size car or mid-size SUV near me are $200 per week (or less). Maybe I'm lucky to be in a cheap rental car market, or maybe I'm good at finding deals? Last 3 out of market rentals were Cadillac, Jag, and convertible and in LA and Miami; didn't pay anywhere near $800 for a week.

 

[LightningShow]

Weekly rental for a full size car or mid-size SUV near me are $200 per week (or less). Maybe I'm lucky to be in a cheap rental car market, or maybe I'm good at finding deals? Last 3 out of market rentals were Cadillac, Jag, and convertible and in LA and Miami; didn't pay anywhere near $800 for a week.

I suppose it's possible but I've rented a lot of vehicles in my time and never seen anything close to $200/wk for a family vehicle. Perhaps if you're specifically looking for a good deal and can be flexible but when you're restricted to a specific time frame for a road trip vacation it's tougher to find a deal.

 

[LightningShow]

As an owner of a 238 mile EPA EV, it's extended range or nothing. YMMV.

I'm in the same boat. I have a 2019 Bolt. Yeah, it's perfectly fine for most situations and, if I needed to, I could drive it any distance by stopping at DC fast charging stations. Still, it would definitely be an annoyance if it was my only car. I have a Flex that I can take if I don't want to worry about travelling a distance on the edge of the range of the vehicle. And there are several locations that I may need to go that fall into that category. Not just weekend trips.

Aside from the battery degrading over 10 years, the more realistic situation I'm trying to avoid would be one where my 230mile truck drops to 180 mile range in the winter, then I commute back and forth to work and expend 80 miles, my GF takes it shopping and forgets to plug it in (HAS HAPPENED ALREADY) then I expend another 80 miles commuting the next day. I'm at less than 20 miles of range and I have to bring my daughter to a travel basketball that evening and I have to figure out what to do. The extended range gives you buffer for those occasions that you can't plan for. I own multiple vehicles right now but I don't want to *have* to own multiple vehicles. My plan would be that the Lightning would be my only vehicle, though I might keep my Boxster for a bit.

 

[shocker]

the more realistic situation I'm trying to avoid would be one where my 230mile truck drops to 180 120 mile range in the winter.

Fixed it for you.
Yes, I have forgotten to plug in for an overnight charging session.

 

[LightningShow]

Right, it's not that difficult for a few things to add up to all of a sudden being near zero on range and you're stuck just waiting out an L2 charging session or going to a DC charger over your lunch break, if you can.

I don't have that many DC fast chargers close by and the Bolt charges slow as hell on the DC chargers, so that would rarely be an option anyway.

 

[PA Lightning]

Don't forget, if you run out of juice, Ford will come and tow you up to 35 miles.

 

[ExCivilian]

Fixed it for you.
Yes, I have forgotten to plug in for an overnight charging session.

That's literally the same calculation I used that he called "wildly unrealistic" and said he expects to only see a 15% reduction in 20F...then when you posted the same calculation he responded, "Right, it's not that difficult for a few things to add up," which means he's just being a contrarian to every point I raise in these threads for whatever reason.

Got another person planning on driving across the state with a boat. I hope it's a kayak...

My TDI gets 36mpg driving down the freeway at 80mph. When I hitch a 2K fiberglass TT to it I can't even get half that at 55mph. The point is no one knows what these Lightnings are going to get with a real load on the end of them--but if you've ever towed something other than a utility trailer you know how fast that needle drops. If I was planning on towing anything that required a full-sized truck I sure wouldn't want to find out the hard way that I'm going to end up spending four hours of my holiday weekend hooked up to a DC charger with a bunch of kids bouncing around in the cabin.

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