Any Chance of Improving My Odds to Order Lightning?

[Sun Devil]

I am currently #45 at my dealer and I don't have hope of getting to order a MY22 Lightning. Frustratingly, my dealer will not tell me how many Lightnings they have been allocated. I'm trying to figure out how to improve my chance of getting to order my desired trim. Admittedly it is frustrating to see that there are 5 orders with reservation dates after mine. I'm sure most of you are in the same boat.

I estimate I am around the 20,000th reservation having reserved the morning after the reveal. (Ford announced 20,000 reservations a couple of hours after I reserved.) As I understand the process, the time stamp of my reservation determines my place in line at a dealer. However, the allocation of Lightnings at the dealer is important. If a dealer is only getting 5 Lightnings and I am number 6 in their line, I am out of luck. However, if I am number 20 in line and my dealer is allotted 25 Lightnings, I am good. (Provided the trim I desire is still available in that Wave.)

I have confirmed with dealers that if I move my reservation to them, my place in their line will be based upon the time stamp of my reservation. In other words, I won't be at the back of their line. I have called around and it seems that the most any dealer has been allotted is 25 Lightnings. (A dealer says the most you can get is 25 and that is based upon the dealer having of 100 or more reservations.)

Although there is no way to know where I will fall in the new dealer's line, it seems that there isn't a disadvantage of moving my reservation to a dealer that has 25 Lightnings allocated in hopes I will fall in their top 25. Am I wrong? Is there any hope of improving my chance or should I just cross my fingers with my current dealer?

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[mustafazr]

I'll one up you, I'm #87 at my dealer (small-ish town in SoCal), having ordered on the evening of May 19th itself (my reservation confirmation email has a time of 19:55 PST). I have no idea why I am so far down, and when I pressed my dealer, they got very defensive, telling me I was accusing them of something. They would not officially tell me how many vehicles they expect to get of MY22, rather they said they have no idea. One of the sales reps let out the number "200" and his higher up (who is managing the Lightning program) said that is "proprietary information" and would not confirm it.

I have absolutely no idea how the competing ideas of "Ford will honor the timestamp" and "dealer priorities matter" work, to be frank. Your explanation, while appreciated, also doesn't make sense. If Ford truly honors the timestamp and sends invite based on those, and the vehicle that you order based on that invite is actually going to be delivered to you, then how can they limit a dealer to 25 (or any number) of vehicles? It would just be based on how many customers at that dealership have the timestamp that made it to MY22.

I'd love to hear other people's views on this, and whether switching dealership will buy anything. I am calling around other dealerships in the area, but I'm going to be hard pressed to find a SoCal dealership which does not have an ungodly amount of reservations.

 

[GarageMahal]

I do not believe any dealer knows how many allocations they have. Ford has not released that information.

They were told how many prioritizations they had but those needed to be entered by mid-December. Note that at no point was is stated that the number of prioritizations had any relationship to the number of allocations however many people mistakenly assumed they did.

Ford is keeping tight control of this with the wave ordering process and so far I think it working much better than it did for the Bronco.

There is no way for Ford to meet demand this year and therefore many people will be upset.

Edit:
P.S. if you are not in the top 5-10 at a dealer it seems a 2022 is highly unlikely

 

[Sun Devil]

I have absolutely no idea how the competing ideas of "Ford will honor the timestamp" and "dealer priorities matter" work, to be frank. Your explanation, while appreciated, also doesn't make sense. If Ford truly honors the timestamp and sends invite based on those, and the vehicle that you order based on that invite is actually going to be delivered to you, then how can they limit a dealer to 25 (or any number) of vehicles? It would just be based on how many customers at that dealership have the timestamp that made it to MY22.

I do not believe any dealer knows how many allocations they have. Ford has not released that information.

I called around to more than a dozen dealers today. Five of them said they were allotted 25 Lightnings. This isn't to imply that is all they will receive, but rather what they are expected to receive.

From what I understand, it is a combination of where you stand in line with your dealer (i.e. time stamp unless prioritized higher by the dealer) and the number of Lightnings the dealer will receive. For example, one dealer I called today states they have been allotted 25 Lightnings and claims 25 is the max anyone knows they are allotted at this point. But he warned that they placed several orders in the first Wave this week already and worried that if I moved my reservation it wouldn't help because his 25 is already down from that.

 

[GarageMahal]

I called around to more than a dozen dealers today. Five of them said they were allotted 25 Lightnings. This isn't to imply that is all they will receive, but rather what they are expected to receive.

From what I understand, it is a combination of where you stand in line with your dealer (i.e. time stamp unless prioritized higher by the dealer) and the number of Lightnings the dealer will receive. For example, one dealer I called today states they have been allotted 25 Lightnings and claims 25 is the max anyone knows they are allotted at this point. But he warned that they placed several orders in the first Wave this week already and worried that if I moved my reservation it wouldn't help because his 25 is already down from that.

My belief is this a result of dealers misunderstanding that the 25 priority slots they received were allocations while the documents shared here clearly state that this is not the case. Priority slots do not guarantee allocation.

Edit:
If the dealer did assign their priority slots before the deadline it is most likely true that transferring in an early timestamp reservation will not put you in front of those. Only Ford knows for sure.

 

[MickeyAO]

I'm already a wave 1 and placed my order, but if I was not, I would be looking at small dealerships with low reservations numbers to see if I could improve my position if I was a day 1 reservation.

 

[Sun Devil]

I'm already a wave 1 and placed my order, but if I was not, I would be looking at small dealerships with low reservations numbers to see if I could improve my position if I was a day 1 reservation.

I have thought about that too. I have been told the number of allocations is partially dependent upon the number of reservations the dealer has. So if I move it to a small dealer and I'm #2, but they only get 1 allocation I'm still stuck.

This process is frustrating. I wish all orders were based on time stamp and you selected your dealer at the time you place the order.

 

[Rgwinn]

As far as dealer allocations, I can tell you that they don’t know yet. I spoke with the owner of our dealership in Oregon, they don’t know how many yet. Ford definitely plays a part in this. They must be taking the list the dealers sent in and based on some secret formula, they are sending the order invitations out.

 

[SmoothJ]

For the 22 Bronco, one of the factors is the past 2-3 years of sales history and Bronco sales for the 21 model. I would expect the same for the F150.

 

[FordLightning]

I have thought about that too. I have been told the number of allocations is partially dependent upon the number of reservations the dealer has. So if I move it to a small dealer and I'm #2, but they only get 1 allocation I'm still stuck.

This process is frustrating. I wish all orders were based on time stamp and you selected your dealer at the time you place the order.

Sun Devil,

You are absolutely right. I can’t believe the lack of transparency in this process. Even what we “know” is not from Ford or dealer communication, but from “leaked” letters to the dealer.

This process is almost as bad as the college acceptance process.

Factors:

- reservation date stamp
- dealer allocation from Ford based on sales
- dealer prioritizing customers (letting them skip the line for any reason they want to make up- bribes, family, status, niceness)
- dealer allocation to ZEV States (would have been nice to know earlier in the process)

For me, I am increasingly considering other options based on the poor value now that pricing has been released. I do believe vehicle pricing will stay elevated compared to pre-covid, but I suspect we may see collapsing of prices as pent up demand subsides and competition increases with EV’s.

I dare you to look at what other vehicles you can buy for $80K, or even $50K. The truck category as a whole seems to be in a bubble, when a few years ago $10K+ off MSRP was normal.

 

[Deleted member 9341]

I called my dealer and the sales manager told me they had over 100 reservations but he then transferred me to a salesperson who was managing all the Lightning reservations. That guy told me they had about 30 reservations. Lol. Car salespeople are so used to lying they don’t even align the lies they tell to their customers. It’s comical….can’t wait until they’re made obsolete….and EVs will play a role in that as service and maintenance issues become less necessary.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

Sun Devil,

You are absolutely right. I can’t believe the lack of transparency in this process. Even what we “know” is not from Ford or dealer communication, but from “leaked” letters to the dealer.

This process is almost as bad as the college acceptance process.

Factors:

- reservation date stamp
- dealer allocation from Ford based on sales
- dealer prioritizing customers (letting them skip the line for any reason they want to make up- bribes, family, status, niceness)
- dealer allocation to ZEV States (would have been nice to know earlier in the process)

For me, I am increasingly considering other options based on the poor value now that pricing has been released. I do believe vehicle pricing will stay elevated compared to pre-covid, but I suspect we may see collapsing of prices as pent up demand subsides and competition increases with EV’s.

I dare you to look at what other vehicles you can buy for $80K, or even $50K. The truck category as a whole seems to be in a bubble, when a few years ago $10K+ off MSRP was normal.

I agree that it would have looked much better on Ford if they had laid out the process ahead of time and then stuck to it. The way it’s going right now it looks like they either had all these little surprises planned all along but didn’t want us to know, or maybe they’re just making it up as they go along. Neither one is good optics

 

[wheelz2000]

I'm with ya Nick. I'm a day 1 reservation holder, but am thinking as time marches on with those of us waiting to be notified in the future waves, it's making me ponder if the lack of value for the much higher priced options is sonwthing I really want to pursue. Not only that but looks like purxhasers will need to like their trucks, whatever they order, for a year if that new customer agreement thing is put in place. Alot of think to do.

 

[wheelz2000]

Apologies for my typing, as it is terrible from my phone.

 

[Nick Gerteis]

Apologies for my typing, as it is terrible from my phone.

No worries. We’ll have weeks to think it through, I think liking the truck for a year will be the least of our issues. Pretty sure everyone that gets one will love it!

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