EV Sales Are Not Performing As Hoped - Letter To The president

[SumGuy]

Our government never mandated we all drive gasoline powered cars and get rid of horses. The free market decided cars are the way to go, and thus we have cars and gas stations to fill them up.

These virtue signaling state and government agencies are mandating EV's, without first mandating the infrastructure to support them. POWER PLANTS! We already don't have enough power for air conditioning in our homes, let's just rid of some more plants, no nukes. While we're at it lets add 250 million registered EV's to the US, it shouldn't be a problem, we have solar panels and wind mills that will get it done.

The car companies should have grown a set 40 years ago and said F**k C.A.R.B. we won't ship there. When Californian's found out they can't get a new car they would have changed things quickly. Now the rest of us in 49 other states must live under the rules of California.

This is all intentional and well planned out.

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[JExpedition07]

Where did geothermal come from?

I’m definitely not an older guy. Electric Heat pumps would run you about 25k installed for indoor and outdoor units.

I’ll shoot you a PM tomorrow when I get to the office regarding HVAC unit specs.

lol no worries it wasn’t really directed at only you, sorry about that. Sometimes I get too into this stuff and get too hot for things I can’t control. It’s just something that has irked me a bit when trying to price things out as it’s sort of an unknown and NY keeps making things harder and more expensive by the month. Almost bought a lot this week but I keep thinking it might be better to get out of this state before I pull the trigger. The issue is family is here, probably worth it to deal. Anyway, it sounds like stuff has changed in the last few years. Good to know.

To the others, As far as the cybertruck… Elon has all ready stated the gen 2 will be a much more conventional truck (flat bedsides, flat nose), so the current model is all ready “outdated” before arrival. It looked extremely durable in the testing, but what happens to passengers in other vehicles I wonder. That’s a big ass truck, it would cream my F-150 in a wreck. Doesn’t seem to mesh well with other traffic. I think the Lightning wins for me if can eek a bit more range out of the setup. They need to hit that magic 400-450 number.

 

[HammaMan]

CT has some odd choices. The aluminum bodies of current fords is dinky -- Ford needs to look at going with a MUCH thicker aluminum alloy that's harder. Current stuff is quite flimsy. Don't want no SS look -- thicker / stiffer aluminum with better paint compounds. Hood and roof, just a hair thicker, doors / fenders / bed exterior thicker / stronger. We'll pay the ~40lb weight penalty.

CT's UCA -- rinky dink. One of the RC models that'd been running around had already damaged / bent it. I suspect that will be changed rather soon.

 

[JExpedition07]

CT has some odd choices. The aluminum bodies of current fords is dinky -- Ford needs to look at going with a MUCH thicker aluminum alloy that's harder. Current stuff is quite flimsy. Don't want no SS look -- thicker / stiffer aluminum with better paint compounds. Hood and roof, just a hair thicker, doors / fenders / bed exterior thicker / stronger. We'll pay the ~40lb weight penalty.

CT's UCA -- rinky dink. One of the RC models that'd been running around had already damaged / bent it. I suspect that will be changed rather soon.

I’m ok with stainless, stainless or aluminum. But I have an inkling that aluminum is more cost effective lol. As long as it’s not steel. I have watched my dad’s 2016 Super Duty be reclaimed by nature despite constant washing. No more steel for me if I stay in the salt belt. My Expedition was on its 2nd pair of rocker panels and they were rusting through again when I sold it.

 

[Walter Townsend]

If you are just looking at it from how much FUN you might be able to have sitting on top of a battery......

It's no longer vaporware.
(credit to another poster on the Lightning forum)

So how does this actually operate as a truck? Looks like a hatchback car to me! Can it tow? Can it carry a load? I do not see any box or cargo space.

 

[HammaMan]

Everything in the screen is just shit. Sorry, less is in-fact, less. Frunk power open / close, but they couldn't get the tailgate to power close. I like how he accurately describes using the screen / menu levels to adjust basic things as "laborious" -- indeed.

So how does this actually operate as a truck? Looks like a hatchback car to me! Can it tow? Can it carry a load? I do not see any box or cargo space.

 

[Walter Townsend]

Everything in the screen is just shit. Sorry, less is in-fact, less. Frunk power open / close, but they couldn't get the tailgate to power close. I like how he accurately describes using the screen / menu levels to adjust basic things as "laborious" -- indeed.

OK so it can tow, but for how far? All these tests are more like quarter mile sprints than real world distance.

One of my biggest complaints with the Lightning is that although it has about a 500 km range, it's range towing is only about 125 km and at that I would not get back to the shop without having to stop and charge.

 

[HammaMan]

OK so it can tow, but for how far? All these tests are more like quarter mile sprints than real world distance.

One of my biggest complaints with the Lightning is that although it has about a 500 km range, it's range towing is only about 125 km and at that I would not get back to the shop without having to stop and charge.

Yeah, towing is like any other vehicle. Whatever your gas mileage hit is, expect the same on an EV. Towing at a distance just isn't viable for today's EVs. Towing and charging is a whole other nut to crack because pull-through chargers are super rare. Maybe in 2 years pull-through (aka trailer friendly) charging will be a thing. Tesla will be the one to do it first now that they've got a towing vehicle, and since everyone is using tesla's charging infrastructure starting 2024, it'll be more viable. Still need longer range battery's. Tesla's add-on battery for the CT to take it near 500 miles range is another $16k. That'd yield about 250 miles of tow range between charging, and need at least 30 minutes to put another 200 miles of tow-range into it.

 

[Kodiak]

I like the Dodge concept, or at least what little I know about it, that they will be using an ICE to charge the battery and not provide any direct drive from that ICE. All drive power will be derived from the electric motors.

I think this will be the long distance answer until charging stations will be added to regular gas stations.

 

[Los150]

Those same people are why we don't have hundreds of nuke plants -- big oil gets in and turns on the FUD machine and midwits parrot their talking points.

Yup, EV sales are in trouble, FOR SURE. A 50% increase in sales from the year prior, what ever are they to do?

Yes but what I've read is that it's FIRST TIME buyers and the problem is that a huge % of them are not going back to EVs. The day I picked up my F-150, a couple of months ago, I spent half the day there (some items needed to be sorted out) and while talking to some of the sales people, I saw 2 families trade in their Teslas for a Bronco and I Believe the other was an Escape or an Edge. Regardless, the point is they told me that was just 2 from that day and when we walked around back, they already had 2 more Teslas and 3 other EVs; one of which was a Lightning, that people turned in.

Yes, there's always going to be those who want to try out the cool new fad. Time will tell if it'll last but the govt should not be involved, the way it is.

Also, we don't have more nuclear plants because too many people protest them. It's the whole "Not in my backyard" bunch that hate coal but don't nuclear. So they want more wind and solar. SMH

 

[Spiffers]

New York State has banned all natural gas hookup for new builds by 2025. Electric heat is the most inefficient form and costly form of heating and is now our only option. Last year in the blizzard in Buffalo, many without low voltage backup fireplaces fired by natural gas froze to death. Unfortunately the democratic lawmakers with no formal MEP engineering education made laws based on environmentalism. They aren’t qualified to make these laws, and they lack the education to make these laws. I am looking at land now, and am considering purchasing outside of New York. Natural Gas is domestically produced and the most efficient and economical source of heat. My other option is to illegally tap into the gas main lol.

We went from a wood stove in the basement when I was a kid to an electric heat pump when I was 16 or 17. Dad worked 2nds and we grew tobacco and just didn't have time to cut wood. Fast forward to 2010-2012 and Dad decided he wanted one of those outdoor wood boilers. He was going to get a stove for the basement but got to worrying about chimney fires and everything. The wood boiler operates the same way the heater in a car does basically. We didn't know we were cold because in the winter time you come inside and it's warmer than outside. But that first year with the boiler oh brother! was it a night and day different. Now if we had just sprung to get the one with the handle you turn to get the ashes out off the firebox. But I guess manually moving around the coals and shoveling out ashe into a wheelbarrow is a small price to pay for being toasty warm.

 

[HammaMan]

Yes but what I've read is that is FIRST TIME buyers and the problem is that a huge % of them are not going back to EVs. The day I picked up my F-150, a couple of months ago, I spent half the day there (some items needed to be sorted out) and while talking to some of the sales people, I saw 2 families trade in their Teslas for a Bronco and I Believe the other was an Escape or an Edge.

Likely due to misunderstanding what they are and what they're not. It's not a 1:1 replacement for ICE. Charging infrastructure is still poor, range is meh, especially on time at charging v. range added. Then there's winter. My basic advice is based on limiting charging to 90% for batt longevity, in winter expect to get 60% of the EPA stated range. If someone goes into ownership expecting that, they're not disappointed. If they go into it expecting always to get 100% of stated range 100% of the time, they're going to be disappointed. If they fail to understand charging speeds, and how it's variable and can slow down substantially as it gets above 80%, they'll be disappointed.

Their best uses is someone who never drives more than 200 miles a day, and if they do has access to good charging along the route, and doesn't need to charge more than once, possibly twice if it's sub 20 minute charging. Today's society is go go go get there now. Current EVs can't do that at range. Also if you don't have access to charge where you park overnight, it sucks. Last figure I saw was north of 95% of charging is done at home. If you can't charge at home, an EV isn't for you right now. If you can charge at home then every single morning you've got 2-300+ miles of range for the day (depending on vehicle). EVs are a poor choice for a family that drives ~1k miles twice a year as you're looking at 5 or 6 stops of 30 minutes or more. Also you'd want to be able to charge wherever you're going, which isn't impossible due to using 120v to charge. It just takes 48hrs or more to completely recharge.

This will change in time as even a 30a 240 plug can fully recharge a vehicle overnight. 120v charging adds 5 miles distance / hr when limited to 15a current. Properly configured home charging adds about 36 miles/hr. DC fast charging, depending on the platform can add 200 miles in ~16 minutes. Most vehicles can't achieve that needing 30 minutes or more to add that range, and because it's completely vehicle dependent. Currently manufacturers are trusting their consumers to be educated on the topic, which just isn't reality. Perhaps it's time to legislate some type of requirement for window stickers in regards to the reality of 'refueling'. I don't expect such under this administration, they'd rather sucker people into something that won't work for them, rather than making sure needs are met and expectations match reality.

 

[amschind]

I think that this is a case of desire replacing simple physics in terms of the popular estimation of what something can do. For most families, I think that a good hybrid AND a smaller EV make the best combo. You can't beat the total cost of ownership of an EV that you charge off of your roof panels, but for longer distance that's less desirable and often more expensive than a very efficient hybrid. Maybe the best use case for EVs, tractors, are JUST NOW coming online. A low speed, high torque, heavier-is-better vehicle that's never far from a charger is a great use case.

The one thing that's dead is the spark ignition engine hooked to a transmission hooked to a driveshaft hooked to a differential hooked to CV shafts hooked to wheels.

 

[HammaMan]

I think that this is a case of desire replacing simple physics in terms of the popular estimation of what something can do. For most families, I think that a good hybrid AND a smaller EV make the best combo. You can't beat the total cost of ownership of an EV that you charge off of your roof panels, but for longer distance that's less desirable and often more expensive than a very efficient hybrid. Maybe the best use case for EVs, tractors, are JUST NOW coming online. A low speed, high torque, heavier-is-better vehicle that's never far from a charger is a great use case.

The one thing that's dead is the spark ignition engine hooked to a transmission hooked to a driveshaft hooked to a differential hooked to CV shafts hooked to wheels.

We'll get there. It's unfortunate that tesla is hellbent on pure electrification. Their engineers combined with someone like ford who's got loads of ICE experience could probably cook up a damn fine ICE generator concept. The ram charger is hilariously bad in this realm in their choices. Another EV/ICE joke using a bigass V6 from their conventional ICE line in the hopes of a "safe" choice using a "proven" engine. Problem is that it's not purpose built. The ICE chassis turned EV are flopping (see VW).

Purpose built dual speed generators made to use every trick in the book to take advantage of fixed RPMs must be used. Maybe it's just a single speed even. Maybe it's a modular thing if viable to add the power pack in when needed. That'd be a whole other can of worms, but not impossible. Better battery tech would obsolete it for the most part. 500 mile base range, 60% recharge in 15 minutes with ubiquitous pull-through charging would make it doable. Tesla's CT add-on battery is a 50kWh pack in the 5-600lb range.

Even if we some how magically electrified every vehicle, we're still going to have loads of gasoline left from distillation. It's stupid to let that fuel go to waste. Aviation and shipping still need their fuels, and there's no method of turning the lighter hydrocarbons into heavier fuels. Jet aircraft could still be made to use gasoline in some capacity though, it's just not as energy dense as jet fuel (highly refined diesel / kerosene). The M1 abrams battle tank is turbine powered and can eat gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and jet fuel.

We haven't yet as a society progressed enough technologically to ignore the plentiful and cheap fossil fuels. Low energy costs are the #1 factor in reducing poverty and increasing quality of life, and you can't have low energy costs when failing to exploit all resources to their fullest potential. Only with competent and non-agenda driven leadership can the true peak of all resources be utilized to make the future better for all life on the planet. Traditional OEMs just don't have the balls to really do the work required to make a true one-size-fits-all approach via a mixed fuel vehicle.

 

[Los150]

I would only get an EV (reluctantly) for putting around town but definitely not for longer drives. It's just a personal thing.

I am not one of those who likes to stop for extended periods. After doing a 4 hr road trip with friends who drove their Model Y and I drove our Audi, I told him he can just leave an hour before us on the return. He stopped us twice for 30 mins each. I don't like feeling forced to stop. I like my stops to be as brief as possible. I literally pull over at a rest stop, stretch right next to my vehicle, and continue driving.

If I have to deal with that nonsense when we do our 14 hr drive to NC, then I'd just fly and leave everyone behind. LOL

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