Lightning Standard Range SR -- Pro vs XLT

[JB-Lightning]

I'm sure this has already been discussed before, but I couldn't find it and wanted to get your feedback.

If I'm going to consider a SR, since I'm unable to afford both the 312A + ER, I'm curious what you all think in regards to the possible delivery date/tax incentive.

• Order Date/Wave - dealer is saying end of January/Beginning of February
• I'm around that 45,000-50,000 reservation mark (ordered 5/21)

If the Pros are so limited, do I have a better shot at getting the tax incentive by ordering a SR XLT?
I wanted to compare the price if I waited for a Pro and did not get the incentive, vs. the XLT and receiving the incentive:

So my questions are:

• Is the additional $4,947 worth the upgrade to the XLT 311A in this scenario? (Signature lighting, fixed running boards, power front seat, etc.)
• Am I being reasonable in expecting a tax incentive for the SR XLT? The incentive phases out after the 200,000th vehicle sold, which I would think would include Mach-E.
• Any other thoughts you have when comparing these two is appreciated. (You're crazy for considering SR, You should really consider this, etc.)

Thanks everyone,

JB

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[biers]

Your write up is my exact plan, to the letter.

When you get an invite you will know if a Pro is available for you to order as a MY 22. If allocation is sold out you won’t be able to order it. If you wait for a MY23 Pro, it’s uncertain if it will be delivered by end of CY23Q1 which is when I suspect the full federal rebate will be expired if the law is unchanged. You will still have Q2 and Q3 where you can take delivery and get $3,750 back. I think this is probably most likely. Other benefit to waiting for MY23 is if there are other options. I imagine they will raise the Pro price then by say $5k.

 

[SmokingtheMeats]

Your write up is my exact plan, to the letter.

When you get an invite you will know if a Pro is available for you to order as a MY 22. If allocation is sold out you won’t be able to order it. If you wait for a MY23 Pro, it’s uncertain if it will be delivered by end of CY23Q1 which is when I suspect the full federal rebate will be expired if the law is unchanged. You will still have Q2 and Q3 where you can take delivery and get $3,750 back. I think this is probably most likely. Other benefit to waiting for MY23 is if there are other options. I imagine they will raise the Pro price then by say $5k.

If they raise the price like that and the rebates are out, I’m just going to order a different truck.

 

[metroshot]

I'm sure this has already been discussed before, but I couldn't find it and wanted to get your feedback.

If I'm going to consider a SR, since I'm unable to afford both the 312A + ER, I'm curious what you all think in regards to the possible delivery date/tax incentive.

• Order Date/Wave - dealer is saying end of January/Beginning of February
• I'm around that 45,000-50,000 reservation mark (ordered 5/21)

If the Pros are so limited, do I have a better shot at getting the tax incentive by ordering a SR XLT?
I wanted to compare the price if I waited for a Pro and did not get the incentive, vs. the XLT and receiving the incentive:

So my questions are:

• Is the additional $4,947 worth the upgrade to the XLT 311A in this scenario? (Signature lighting, fixed running boards, power front seat, etc.)
• Am I being reasonable in expecting a tax incentive for the SR XLT? The incentive phases out after the 200,000th vehicle sold, which I would think would include Mach-E.
• Any other thoughts you have when comparing these two is appreciated. (You're crazy for considering SR, You should really consider this, etc.)

Thanks everyone,

JB

Why is there no tax incentive on the Pro ?

I am looking at the Pro because the SR battery is more than I need in urban daily driving.

Would love the cloth seat option on a Pro but I found an eBay seller that sells new cloth seats from '21 / '22 XLT Ford F150s which I will have replaced out on my Pro.....

 

[JB-Lightning]

Why is there no tax incentive on the Pro ?

I am looking at the Pro because the SR battery is more than I need in urban daily driving.

Would love the cloth seat option on a Pro but I found an eBay seller that sells new cloth seats from '21 / '22 XLT Ford F150s which I will have replaced out on my Pro.....

Everything I've heard is Ford limiting the amount of Pros they are willing to build.
So I'm assuming it would be years before I actually receive the Pro, at which point the incentive would be phased out. Perhaps I would get the $3,750 incentive, like the previous response from Biers.

I'm just trying to look at it from different angles to decide what is going to give the best bang for your buck.

 

[LightningShow]

If you can get a Pro in 2022 then that's the best but obviously that's a big crapshoot. The crazy thing is that Ford only has slightly more XLT 311A SR in their plan. If they stick to the production plan there will be less than 15% of the production made as Pro SR and XLT 311A SR.

 

[cts888]

I think its a no brainer. If you can't get a Pro in 2022 you mine as well get a base XLT. Tax credit will start going away by the end of the year

 

[broncoaz]

I think its a no brainer. If you can't get a Pro in 2022 you mine as well get a base XLT. Tax credit will start going away by the end of the year

I would agree with this, if it’s pro later with no tax rebate vs XLT this year with $7500 off the $12K difference I’d go with XLT for the net $5K additional.

 

[KevinC]

Fords at about 158,000 towards the 200,000 IRS threshold. They're selling about 8000 Mach E + plugin Escape each quarter. I dont see anything that officially suggests they're going to have more than 15,000 lightnings for MY2022 which will probably spread over q2-q3.

My understanding is that the rebate disappears a quarter after the manufacturer goes over 200,000 . I'm not sure of the interpretation of whether the quarter after is the last one that still gets the rebate or where it is the first where it is no longer available. I'm sure there are probably plenty of Tesla owners who can verify what happens when that line is crossed. If we get to the point where that line is crossed I would imagine there are going to be a good chunk of people walking away from their orders in progress. I'm still holding out a little bit of hope that Joe-Squared will get better rebates for the lightning.

quarter	Mach E + PHEV	Lightning	total at start of Q
Q1 2022	8000	0	158,000
Q2 2022	8000	8000 MY2022	166,000
Q3 2022	8000	8000 MY2022	182,000
Q4 2022	8000	XX,XXX MY2023	198,000
Q1 2023	8000	XX,XXX MY2023	216,000 +
Q2 2023	8000

 

[Pioneer74]

Fords at about 158,000 towards the 200,000 IRS threshold. They're selling about 8000 Mach E + plugin Escape each quarter. I dont see anything that officially suggests they're going to have more than 15,000 lightnings for MY2022 which will probably spread over q2-q3.

My understanding is that the rebate disappears a quarter after the manufacturer goes over 200,000 . I'm not sure of the interpretation of whether the quarter after is the last one that still gets the rebate or where it is the first where it is no longer available. I'm sure there are probably plenty of Tesla owners who can verify what happens when that line is crossed. If we get to the point where that line is crossed I would imagine there are going to be a good chunk of people walking away from their orders in progress. I'm still holding out a little bit of hope that Joe-Squared will get better rebates for the lightning.

quarter	Mach E + PHEV	Lightning	total at start of Q
Q1 2022	8000	0	158,000
Q2 2022	8000	8000 MY2022	166,000
Q3 2022	8000	8000 MY2022	182,000
Q4 2022	8000	XX,XXX MY2023	198,000
Q1 2023	8000	XX,XXX MY2023	216,000 +
Q2 2023	8000

Don't forget the E-Transit.

 

[broncoaz]

Fords at about 158,000 towards the 200,000 IRS threshold. They're selling about 8000 Mach E + plugin Escape each quarter. I dont see anything that officially suggests they're going to have more than 15,000 lightnings for MY2022 which will probably spread over q2-q3.

My understanding is that the rebate disappears a quarter after the manufacturer goes over 200,000 . I'm not sure of the interpretation of whether the quarter after is the last one that still gets the rebate or where it is the first where it is no longer available. I'm sure there are probably plenty of Tesla owners who can verify what happens when that line is crossed. If we get to the point where that line is crossed I would imagine there are going to be a good chunk of people walking away from their orders in progress. I'm still holding out a little bit of hope that Joe-Squared will get better rebates for the lightning.

quarter	Mach E + PHEV	Lightning	total at start of Q
Q1 2022	8000	0	158,000
Q2 2022	8000	8000 MY2022	166,000
Q3 2022	8000	8000 MY2022	182,000
Q4 2022	8000	XX,XXX MY2023	198,000
Q1 2023	8000	XX,XXX MY2023	216,000 +
Q2 2023	8000

I’d much rather pay more for my Lightning with less or no incentives than pay for the BBB plan over the next decade or longer regardless of the incentives. Short term gain isn’t worth the long term pain.

I agree that some people will walk from their reservations when the 200K threshold is hit.

 

[sotek2345]

Fords at about 158,000 towards the 200,000 IRS threshold. They're selling about 8000 Mach E + plugin Escape each quarter. I dont see anything that officially suggests they're going to have more than 15,000 lightnings for MY2022 which will probably spread over q2-q3.

My understanding is that the rebate disappears a quarter after the manufacturer goes over 200,000 . I'm not sure of the interpretation of whether the quarter after is the last one that still gets the rebate or where it is the first where it is no longer available. I'm sure there are probably plenty of Tesla owners who can verify what happens when that line is crossed. If we get to the point where that line is crossed I would imagine there are going to be a good chunk of people walking away from their orders in progress. I'm still holding out a little bit of hope that Joe-Squared will get better rebates for the lightning.

quarter	Mach E + PHEV	Lightning	total at start of Q
Q1 2022	8000	0	158,000
Q2 2022	8000	8000 MY2022	166,000
Q3 2022	8000	8000 MY2022	182,000
Q4 2022	8000	XX,XXX MY2023	198,000
Q1 2023	8000	XX,XXX MY2023	216,000 +
Q2 2023	8000

If your math is correct. Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 would get the full credit. Q2 and Q3 2023 would get half credit, and Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 would get 1/4 credit.

 

[fitek]

I’d much rather pay more for my Lightning with less or no incentives than pay for the BBB plan over the next decade or longer regardless of the incentives. Short term gain isn’t worth the long term pain.

I agree that some people will walk from their reservations when the 200K threshold is hit.

As discussed elsewhere here, the credit is basically for the benefit of manufacturers, since they'll adjust prices accordingly. Ford came up with that entry price for Pro to make headlines and I guess some lucky few will get a great deal, but otherwise I'm expecting they might adjust prices once the credit goes away. Your personal opinion on BBB doesn't really matter since you don't get to vote on it If BBB goes through with 12.5k credit or whatever, I'm expecting prices will increase next year.

I don't know what you're driving now, but I'd factor that in too... used cars are going for a premium. I got 22k for my used VW this summer, instead of the 17k I was offered last summer when I guessed (correctly) I wasn't going to commute to an office anymore. I'm eager to dump my wife's car too while prices are good, but we need another vehicle first. Our backup old car seems to have something break every couple of months.

 

[LightningShow]

Wow, didn't know Ford was already at 158,000. I was just accounting for the Mach-E, I didn't realize plug-in hybrids were part of the deal.

 

[DJBull]

Fords at about 158,000 towards the 200,000 IRS threshold. They're selling about 8000 Mach E + plugin Escape each quarter. I dont see anything that officially suggests they're going to have more than 15,000 lightnings for MY2022 which will probably spread over q2-q3.

My understanding is that the rebate disappears a quarter after the manufacturer goes over 200,000 . I'm not sure of the interpretation of whether the quarter after is the last one that still gets the rebate or where it is the first where it is no longer available. I'm sure there are probably plenty of Tesla owners who can verify what happens when that line is crossed. If we get to the point where that line is crossed I would imagine there are going to be a good chunk of people walking away from their orders in progress. I'm still holding out a little bit of hope that Joe-Squared will get better rebates for the lightning.

quarter	Mach E + PHEV	Lightning	total at start of Q
Q1 2022	8000	0	158,000
Q2 2022	8000	8000 MY2022	166,000
Q3 2022	8000	8000 MY2022	182,000
Q4 2022	8000	XX,XXX MY2023	198,000
Q1 2023	8000	XX,XXX MY2023	216,000 +
Q2 2023	8000

Here's a news blip from the IRS from 2019 when GM reported 200,000 EVs sold. I assume it's still handled the same way.

https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/plug-i...igible-consumers-begins-phase-down-on-april-1

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