Sdctcher

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See previous posts on this thread explaining the numbers - your place in line has more to do with time and date. You reserved right after I did so we are around 20,000.
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EVTrucking

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anyone know if reservation number is sequenced based on your time of order? Example if last 5 digits if over 50,000, you will most likely not get your order until after the 1st year's batch, since Ford can only make 50K of trucks per year. If so, it doesn't make sense because Ford announced that they got 44,000 reservation after 2 days. I did reserve only 12 hours after the announcement and my reservation # has 10857XXX. Could it be that Ford has other thousands of #s slots reserved for the connected people that didn't have to do "line up" on the normal reservation queue?
Ford announced that they doubled their production goal from 7,500 to 15,000 for 2022. Their goal for 2023 is 55,000.

As of 6/9/21 Ford had 100,000 reservations. My reservation is 6/3/21 so I am about 90,000th in line. Math says roughly 2.5 yrs.
 

sotek2345

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anyone know if reservation number is sequenced based on your time of order? Example if last 5 digits if over 50,000, you will most likely not get your order until after the 1st year's batch, since Ford can only make 50K of trucks per year. If so, it doesn't make sense because Ford announced that they got 44,000 reservation after 2 days. I did reserve only 12 hours after the announcement and my reservation # has 10857XXX. Could it be that Ford has other thousands of #s slots reserved for the connected people that didn't have to do "line up" on the normal reservation queue?
The order numbers are Ford wide, not Lightning specific, so you can't infer anything directly from the number (i.e. Bronco and Maverick use the same system). Also, the leaked numbers for Lightning production are 15k in 2022, 55k in 2023, and 80k in 2024. We all collectively hope that leaks is wrong and the actual numbers are much higher. Depending on the reservation conversion rate (how many actually order), I would guess you at a late 2022 or early 2023.
 

Sdctcher

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My Repost from Sept. 11 (#420)

Start Reservations 9:30 PM EDT May 19,2021

These are ALL Official Ford Media Estimates:

12 Hours = +/- 20,000 (May 19-20)
48 Hours = 44,000-45,000 (May 21)
1 Week = 70,000 (May 26)
3 Weeks = 100,000 (June 9)
2 1/2 Months = 120,000 (End July)
3 1/2 Months = 130,000 (Sept. 1)

On "f150gen14.com/forum/threads/reservation-holders-for-2022-f-150-lightning-sign-in-here"
Sample Reservation List:

*Be Aware this sample is ONLY .005% of the Total Ford Estimates - a Very Very Small Representative Sample.

Lowest Reservation Numbers (As of 9-07-21 and about 560 Entries) are 108 01xxx and 108 03xxx but I think these are typos and might be corrected given a way to do it.

I think the lowest starts are at 108 13xxx.

The Highest to Date is 11216161 on 9/14/2021 @ 12:31 p.m.

I Believe you can use the above numbers to gauge where you stand using your Reservation Date and Timestamp on what Number Order (1-130,000) you can expect.

Remember that the Published Initial 15,000 Builds is NOT a Ford Number but rather a Media Number from "Sources".
 

Tommy303

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Mach-E GT guy here...trying to get used to this EV stuff


Date Reservation Placed: 05/20/2021

Reservation ID Number: 10845171
 

mwasmuth

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ShirBlackspots

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Code:
Reservation data:
* 20,000 in 12 hours (May 20)
* 44,500 in 48 hours (May 21)
* 70,000 in about 8 days (May 27)
* 100,000 in about three weeks (June 9)
* 120,000 in over two months (July 28)
* 130,000 in over three months (September 2)
* 150,000 in about four months (September 16)
From
https://www.insideevs.com/news/533616/ford-begins-preproduction-f150-lightning/

Combine that with the known leak about Ford's planned production:

15k in 2022
55k in 2023
80k in 2024
160k in 2025 on the new TE1 platform
 

sotek2345

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Code:
Reservation data:
* 20,000 in 12 hours (May 20)
* 44,500 in 48 hours (May 21)
* 70,000 in about 8 days (May 27)
* 100,000 in about three weeks (June 9)
* 120,000 in over two months (July 28)
* 130,000 in over three months (September 2)
* 150,000 in about four months (September 16)
From
https://www.insideevs.com/news/533616/ford-begins-preproduction-f150-lightning/

Combine that with the known leak about Ford's planned production:

15k in 2022
55k in 2023
80k in 2024
160k in 2025 on the new TE1 platform
Darren Palmer gave an interview today with Inside EVs that bumped those numbers

2022 - didn't give a number but 15k to 18k is wrong.

2023 - 80k to 90k
 

Sdctcher

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Ditto what I had said in posts #420 and #454.

Ford says they will work towards producing 80,000 units per year once Pre-Production Period is finished. This means they will probably produce close to 50,000 during 2022 model year and probably 80,000 in 2023. That should cover every reservation for model year 2022 in the first 3 weeks if 100% convert to an order (unlikely) and everybody up to June 3rd if 50% convert.

I think many of the reservations in the first couple of days were multiples, wannas without cash (WWC), and placeholders, and many will not convert.
 
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rydfree

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Hello , new to this forum but I sold my '07 crewcab King Ranch back in January since I thought the Bronco would be here by August . That was a bad decision since I just had to get a 2020 Ranger to get me by while Ford gets their act together . Driving my 30 year old 1991 ranger to work every day was getting risky .

Placed a Lightening reservation within the 1st couple of minutes of the announcement .

Res # 10819044

Just added my info into the tracker.

The plan now is to get the Bronco , whenever they decide to build it , then trade the Ranger and my wifes GLK350 in on the Lightening . Hopefully the used market will still be good enough that I won't lose too much on the trades .
 
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