Lithium EV vs Up coming Solid State EV

Sgt Beavis

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I think it is extremely unlikely that Ford or other companies would offer battery retrofits for existing vehicles. Batteries are still incredibly expensive and specific to the vehicle in which they were installed. Even Tesla that touted the prices of batteries coming down over the years has not offered retrofits for their older vehicles. Identical battery replacements are $22k, and the packs are simply "refurbished." They will not even sell you a 100kwh pack for an 85kwh car. With the limited production numbers of the earlier trucks, there is even less incentive for Ford to retrofit a battery vs. buying a new truck.

With drivetrain efficiencies between 90 and 95%, there is really no point to limiting power output. It is not like a gas car that uses more fuel when under heavy load or at certain portions of the powerband. In fact, even if I launch my Tesla hard from a stoplight, my overall energy consumption does not change unless I have to use the mechanical brakes or I drive significantly faster than the speed limit, either of which are irrelevant to the amount of power that the car makes.
I absolutely agree with this. Battery tech is VERY rapidly changing and retrofits would be very cost prohibitive. This is why I’m planning to have a 3yr lease for my EV Truck. I think there is a decent chance someone will make a 1000mi EV truck by the end of the 2020s.





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xtraman122

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I think it is extremely unlikely that Ford or other companies would offer battery retrofits for existing vehicles. Batteries are still incredibly expensive and specific to the vehicle in which they were installed. Even Tesla that touted the prices of batteries coming down over the years has not offered retrofits for their older vehicles. Identical battery replacements are $22k, and the packs are simply "refurbished." They will not even sell you a 100kwh pack for an 85kwh car. With the limited production numbers of the earlier trucks, there is even less incentive for Ford to retrofit a battery vs. buying a new truck.

With drivetrain efficiencies between 90 and 95%, there is really no point to limiting power output. It is not like a gas car that uses more fuel when under heavy load or at certain portions of the powerband. In fact, even if I launch my Tesla hard from a stoplight, my overall energy consumption does not change unless I have to use the mechanical brakes or I drive significantly faster than the speed limit, either of which are irrelevant to the amount of power that the car makes.
While I agree about retrofitting, electric motors definitely do have different efficiencies at different amounts of utilization. I believe it’s usually somewhere around half power is ideal for most of them. This is why you see Tesla stacking up multiple motors on a car and getting more range out of it sometimes, it’s more efficient to have 2 motors working at 50% than one constantly trying to max itself out. It’s backwards from gas engines where the bigger engine will get worse mileage because it’s running all the time, even if you don’t use all that power, but with electric motors sometimes a more powerful motor will run more efficiently doing the same job as a smaller one if it’s not working as hard to do it.

With high stress on the motor comes excess heat and ultimately increased current draw on the battery; Ie less efficiency and lower overall range.
 
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currybob

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This is an excellent and some really great discussion of possibility's based on fact, science and experiences, I love it.

EVs are the future, which I think all in this thread will agree. There are many benefits to this type of power-train. They will evolve over time to no telling what as years pass, always improving as already mentioned.

With trucks comes the towing possibilities which require more power. Current battery weight greatly effects the capability to meet the needs for those doing light to medium towing for a desired distance. Charging times and locations are another area of concern.

No doubt the number and locations of such stations will be on rise at a very fast pace. As EVs increase in significant numbers, the power grid becomes another concern. As a country, our power grid in many area's are barley keeping up now. I just hope our current leadership and power companies keep up with this trend so the move to EVs will work.

I just go my PowerBoost and usuall keep my vehicles 3 to 4 years, so I am optimistic for the SSBs in near future use. I am hoping they will come to into play about the time I'm ready to upgrade again (I know, I'm optimistic). I truly believe we could see them arrive in the 24-25 model years.

Toyota already has a working research version to be announced this year. They seem to have addressed successfully the dendrite issue of the SSB.

SSBs have been researched very hard for many decades now and seem to have gotten some serious breakthroughs recently and seems they could start moving into the mainstream very soon. Their design benefits really address many of the issues keeping EVs from faster growth.

Just my thoughts so far
 

Kamuelaflyer

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Looks like Ford just officially announced 100k reservations - lower than it would be based on the reservation numbers but more expected I think. Maybe this means I might make the second year of production!

https://www.engadget.com/f-150-lightning-sales-012134743.html
Good luck on waiting, I would imagine you will be waiting to well past 2025.

Keep in mind, they can already make Solid state batteries, just not in quantity or cost effectively. Lithium will continue to go down in price over the next decade, and possibly by then solid state may begin to take over... but then again, may not.
Agreed. They are trying to gain investor interest and confidence for going public. Don't forget that there is a big divide between producing a solid-state batteries for electric vehicles and mass producing them at a price the market will bear. I'm ready for a BEV truck now. I'm not going to hold out for the next great thing.
Waiting for the next technology to come out is always an infinite wait. The trick is to find the spot you feel comfortable with. SSB batteries are a better thing no doubt, but getting them ready for EV's is another story.

And PR statements are just that.
 

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While I agree about retrofitting, electric motors definitely do have different efficiencies at different amounts of utilization. I believe it’s usually somewhere around half power is ideal for most of them. This is why you see Tesla stacking up multiple motors on a car and getting more range out of it sometimes, it’s more efficient to have 2 motors working at 50% than one constantly trying to max itself out. It’s backwards from gas engines where the bigger engine will get worse mileage because it’s running all the time, even if you don’t use all that power, but with electric motors sometimes a more powerful motor will run more efficiently doing the same job as a smaller one if it’s not working as hard to do it.

With high stress on the motor comes excess heat and ultimately increased current draw on the battery; Ie less efficiency and lower overall range.
It's true that electric motors (and power supplies) have an efficiency curve, the motors are so powerful that the single front motor in a Model S is capable of 259 horsepower by itself - and that's the small one. With both motors at 50%, the car is producing 381hp! Tesla puts the rear induction motor to "sleep" when cruising at moderate power to boost efficiency.

However, with permanent magnet motors at both the front and rear of a vehicle (like the F150), you don't really have the option of putting a motor to "sleep" as the motor is always in some state of delivering torque or generating power.
 

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I think it is extremely unlikely that Ford or other companies would offer battery retrofits for existing vehicles...there is even less incentive for Ford to retrofit a battery vs. buying a new truck.
Perhaps I wasn't explicit enough; I believe it's an absolute certainty that Ford won't offer new upgraded batteries for used EVs and I never would expect that outside of warranty replacements. What I said was a factual statement about the Lightning being body on frame construction and because of that it will be easier to upgrade and modify. While most people would simply buy a new vehicle, as EVs become more prevalent and better understood, (and more importantly, cheaper in the second hand market) I'm speculating that a new generation of hot rodders who are more comfortable with a multimeter and computer tablet than a timing light and vacuum gauge will seek out the challenge of taking their grandparent's mint condition EV with a clapped out battery and finding a way of making it relevant or even better performing than a brand new vehicle. I knew a dude that had zero experience with working on cars and who works as a regional sales manager who bought his company's old Prius fleet and successfully rebuilt the battery packs with nothing more than YouTube and eBay as a resource. While the Prius battery pales in comparison with the Lightning's, the basic principles remain. Already, there are exotic and classic car EV conversions using wrecked Teslas. I can only imagine how much more that will happen with drivetrains from manufacturers that don't fight tooth and nail against that. If customization happens and the aftermarket steps up, it would also benefit those who choose to keep their trucks stock and simply just want to keep them on the road and running.

One thing that also wouldn't shock me is that as prices come down, it's possible that Ford and the other Detroit manufacturers start offering EV components for classic cars the same way crate motor and transmission combos are offered today.

I really wonder how Henry Ford would react to being told that in 2021, you would be able to buy virtually every part of a '32 Ford brand new other than the original engine and transmission.

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...there is really no point to limiting power output...either of which are irrelevant to the amount of power that the car makes.
I agree 100%, however you are giving elected officials and bureaucrats far too much credit if you think that they won't try some silly shit to ruin a good thing. I can almost guarantee that they will talk about limitations on motor output once people are stuck waiting in line to charge their cars or use it as some red herring for energy mismanagement and grid problems, which has already begun.

Not only did they ban vacuum cleaners over a certain wattage in the European Union but they also capped the wattage of toasters and hair dryers 'in hopes that new technology will be developed to improve efficiency.' Hair dryers and toasters by their very nature are already 100% efficient! Because of entropy and better toasting and drying rates at higher temperature deltas, lowering the wattage just made the process use more energy because it will take more than twice as long at half the wattage. However, since electricity isn't normally visible, it might as well be magic and sorcery to the average politician.
 

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I am also hoping for a burgeoning cottage industry that keeps EVs going. I'd also love to see 3rd party tuning shops that adjust the power curves and charging speeds of a car. My specific experience is related to Tesla taking an Apple-ish approach to preventing 3rd party repair and modifications. That is a shame as it is one reason I am planning on my next EV being something other than a Tesla. Hopefully Ford doesn't follow the same lead.

The battery principles between the Prius and other EVs are the same, but the BMS (battery management system) software may make repairs prohibitive. There are some really smart guys working on Teslas and even a lot of their repairs are unsuccessful outside of direct pack replacements. This is an interesting, albeit long thread on Tesla battery replacement costs:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/service-says-22k-for-new-battery-on-2012-model-s.221438/
 

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In another thread there was some questions regarding Right to Repair and Ford's stance. I really hope that things don't change because, so far, and for the last hundred years; Ford has been pretty stellar at letting people fix and modify their own cars (it's cars under warranty that Ford is bad at dealing with). You can pretty much order any parts other than a Ford GT transaxle or the Mustang flat-plane V8 no questions asked. With Forscan and freely available service manuals, there's really no hurdles to working on your own car.

A lot of the Tesla battery problems seem to be the same as Apple's own devious measures to discourage owners and third parties from doing absolutely anything. It's a really shitty way of treating customers and hopefully no established companies will follow suit. Unfortunately, BMW, in a greedy move has been talking about having certain features subscription only and I can only imagine how much that would hurt BMW's already dismal resale value.

Hopefully, as technology improves, better alternatives to OEM BMS will come out. It's way more complicated than a golf cart but really serviceability needs to stop being the lowest priority for manufacturers. I'm very interested to see how things progress.
 

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Tesla puts the rear induction motor to "sleep" when cruising at moderate power to boost efficiency.
I was told my Model 3 puts the front motor to sleep pretty much all the time other than when AWD or acceleration is needed.
 

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I was told my Model 3 puts the front motor to sleep pretty much all the time other than when AWD or acceleration is needed.
Yes, on the Model 3 the permanent magnet motor is in the rear, so the front induction motor sleeps. On the newer S and X it's reversed and the rear motor sleeps. And on the earlier S / X (before 2019) both motors were induction. The rear slept as it was bigger and less efficient at low power.
 
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currybob

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Interesting video with some very good information and power numbers with the grid and charging EVs in the future.

 

Kamuelaflyer

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Interesting video with some very good information and power numbers with the grid and charging EVs in the future.

There was a video a while back about this subject that used the U.K. as its basis. The nitty-gritty was that compared to historical peak energy use in the U.K., they are currently well below that level due to modern appliances, etc. If they were to convert 50% of cars/trucks instantly (impossible of course) to electric would still have put the UK around 6% below the historical high power demands. Just another hypothesis.
 

EaglesPDX

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On the newer S and X it's reversed and the rear motor sleeps
But 90% of Tesla's, the 3's and Y's are basically RWD cars with on demand AWD. You could feel it during the winter snow storms as the RWD would push the car off course and the FWD would kick in.

Be nice if Tesla allowed the drive to pick full AWD.
 

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Waiting for the next technology to come out is always an infinite wait. The trick is to find the spot you feel comfortable with. SSB batteries are a better thing no doubt, but getting them ready for EV's is another story.

And PR statements are just that.
As someone that's been following EVs for about 10 years, and has owned 2.5 (one a PHEV so that's the 0.5) of them, the next big thing is always "Just right around the corner!"

10 years ago fuel cells were "the next big thing" and were supposedly "about 24 months away from commercial production," and every year it's some new startup that is "ready to scale" their magical new battery tech that weighs 420gr, holds 6000kWhr and costs less than a Starbucks coffee.

I hate to sound jaded, but what can be done in a lab by a startup is often decades away from commercial scale, and has about a 1 in 1000 chance of making it there at a reasonable price point. Remember that startups constantly have to get cash infusions, so they are always "Just a few million of investment $ away" from that big breakthough.

On the positive side of the ledger, there's now so much interest and investment that we should see incremental improvements, but I'm still skeptical anytime a company claims that they have "the answer" and it's only 24 months and another $50M funding round away.
 
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currybob

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