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TheRealDlo

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I spoke with Ford customer service and that is what the lady told me YESTERDAY.

Also, my dealer called me TODAY to say they have been informed of a dealer allocation of 10 trucks for the next wave of orders.

They have me #8 on the list so they told me to watch out for the email next Wednesday or Thursday!!!

Super exciting!
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Bippers

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Can anyone corroborate this story? I don't want to have to pester my dealer without some certainty.
 

gorwell

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Seems suspect to me -- the part about the dealer getting 10 invites the next wave.... Maybe 10 over the next 5 waves.

Let's say next wave, the average dealer gets 5 invites, and Ford has 1500 dealers with invites. That's 7500 orders.

Pro would be gone in seconds on Wave 2, and all trucks would be all gone by wave 4-- except for XLTs which no one should buy because it's a horrible deal.
 
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TheRealDlo

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Well my Ford Dealership said that today.

So I shared the info.

I'll update the forum next week to share what happened.
 

thevofl

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Seems suspect to me -- the part about the dealer getting 10 invites the next wave.... Maybe 10 over the next 5 waves.

Let's say next wave, the average dealer gets 5 invites, and Ford has 1500 dealers with invites. That's 7500 orders.

Pro would be gone in seconds on Wave 2, and all trucks would be all gone by wave 4-- except for XLTs which no one should buy because it's a horrible deal.
I don't know. The way that some people react on this forum, I'm suspecting a lot of reservations are getting cancelled, so 10 can become 1 order. /s

I think wave 1 was merely a test run for Ford. They accepted a very small number of reservations to address any kinks that came up. Also Ford now has a good idea what the conversion rate is, what the distribution of the trim selections looks like. They can pace this out.
 

F150ROD

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So basically Ford is keeping to the two week schedule.
 

sotek2345

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Seems suspect to me -- the part about the dealer getting 10 invites the next wave.... Maybe 10 over the next 5 waves.

Let's say next wave, the average dealer gets 5 invites, and Ford has 1500 dealers with invites. That's 7500 orders.

Pro would be gone in seconds on Wave 2, and all trucks would be all gone by wave 4-- except for XLTs which no one should buy because it's a horrible deal.
This makes sense to me. Small wave 1 to test. Larger waves 2 and 3 to get the majority of the orders waves 4 and 5 as cleanup with wave 6 being what is left. 6 waves assumes some take rate (likely conservative), if it is higher less waves may be needed.
 

jazzmanmonty

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There are "over 2,100 EV certified ford dealerships." So keeping numbers conservative to 15,000 lightnings made for 22MY, that means each dealer averages 7 lightnings. If wave 2 again shows only 1 order per dealer, and with 6 waves, that means ford realistically intends to take about 12,500 orders for 22MY for the wave phase, and then after 3/31, convert the remaining 2,500 orders to "balance out invitations" per their playbook.

The math adds up pretty damn perfect from our givens- 15,000 orders, 2,100 EV dealers, 1 order per dealer for wave 1, 6 waves plus 1 filler wave at the end.

Of course, there are variables with allotment, which will probably swing each dealers numbers from a few orders to maybe 15-20, but all i know is that wave 2 will clarify (or confuse the hell out of) everything.
 

SmoothJ

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There are "over 2,100 EV certified ford dealerships." So keeping numbers conservative to 15,000 lightnings made for 22MY, that means each dealer averages 7 lightnings. If wave 2 again shows only 1 order per dealer, and with 6 waves, that means ford realistically intends to take about 12,500 orders for 22MY for the wave phase, and then after 3/31, convert the remaining 2,500 orders to "balance out invitations" per their playbook.

The math adds up pretty damn perfect from our givens- 15,000 orders, 2,100 EV dealers, 1 order per dealer for wave 1, 6 waves plus 1 filler wave at the end.

Of course, there are variables with allotment, which will probably swing each dealers numbers from a few orders to maybe 15-20, but all i know is that wave 2 will clarify (or confuse the hell out of) everything.
I did the math as well quite a number of times, and of course I agree. However we need to factor in fleet sales, cancellations, priorities, and etc.

The sad thing is a number of us reserved in the first 24 hours, and now we are looking at the 23MY instead.
 
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rdr854

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What happens to those Wave 1 folks who don’t order before Wave 2 starts?
 

SteffanG

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They can place orders anytime until 3/31. They will have fewer trims to choose from the longer they wait, though.
Well they have until the model year sells out.

I dont know whether it is true or not (it is the YouTube guys that makes videos on a bunch of rumors) but his headline said 41% conversion ratio so far.
 
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TheRealDlo

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Well they have until the model year sells out.

I dont know whether it is true or not (it is the YouTube guys that makes videos on a bunch of rumors) but his headline said 41% conversion ratio so far.
That was his poll. I like Larry btw.
 
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