Lightning vs R1T - Timing and cost

[cts888]

I have a relatively late preorder for both a Lightning and a Rivian R1S, looking at 2023 delivery (at best) for either one. I've been leaning toward the Rivian, was super pissed off/disapointed with the sudden, massive price increase and wrote a long letter to Rivian/RJ about how there was no way I was going to pay that much (13K more than I was planning on), or wait another 1-2 years for the lower priced dual motor version but wasn't canceling yet as I thought they would be forced to walk it back for preorder holders. Turns out I was right. The backlash was immediate and overwhelming.

They definitely screwed this up big time, but I have to give them some credit for walking it back in the face of a massive mutiny of both reservation holders and stockholders. Apparently they really didn't have a choice given the size of the backlash.

The net effect is that now Rivian preorder holders like me are (supposedly) going to get the Rivian at a ~20% discount compared to new orders. This means that I could theoretically drive it for 2-3 years and resell with no depreciation, which makes it seem like a hell of a deal as long as they stay in business and the quality/reliability are solid.

What this means to me is that they just locked in most of their reservations, including nearly all of those who cancelled, and now have even more incentive to ramp production quickly and get the new lower cost versions on the market ASAP. They will take a loss on the first 50-70K vehicles, but in the long run it's a drop in the bucket. They have enough cash to absorb the hit, and getting lots of them on the road and reducing lead times will help drive sales going forward. Given that they are an unproven startup at this point that's what they need to do to prove themselves and maintain customer goodwill. They need to be in it for the long term if they are going to survive and thrive. They may also need a change in leadership but we'll see what happens with that...

I am in the same boat. I have a base XLT lightning coming in June (may production) .. My R1T is on for early 2023. (base model for $67.5k.. which will be worth $82k) Now I need to decide which one to sell for a profit and which one to keep. Going to claim tax credits in back to back years so should be ahead of the game by a fair bit. I do think the Rivian will hold its value better long term.

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[Yellow Buddy]

I am in the same boat. I have a base XLT lightning coming in June (may production) .. My R1T is on for early 2023. (base model for $67.5k.. which will be worth $82k) Now I need to decide which one to sell for a profit and which one to keep. Going to claim tax credits in back to back years so should be ahead of the game by a fair bit. I do think the Rivian will hold its value better long term.

My estimates is my Pro will be able to sell for about $5,000 more than what I'll end up paying for it. I just can't see someone plopping down $10,000+ on the lowest level trim.

The problem we have is the tax law. If it stays and Ford goes over the 200k units; we now have an extra $7500 in value. If it goes and BBB kicks in, new buyers are staring at getting $12,500 off a brand new truck. At that point assuming pricing holds, they're staying at essentially an XLT at Pro prices. I don't think we'll lose the value but that could swing the equation a bit.

As for the Rivian, it all depends on how the company evolves. I've been with Tesla through the non-autopilot phase. Then from the AP1 to AP2 phase. If we're getting outdated hardware and software in 2023, that $15k price difference will shrink faster than you know it. It all depends on timing. I remember getting a $20k discount on my Model X, thinking how I couldn't lose. Then a year later trying to sell my AP1 MX at a $15k loss - $35k less than MSRP in 2017 for a 2016 model.

Big MSRPs always have more to lose...

 

[cts888]

My estimates is my Pro will be able to sell for about $5,000 more than what I'll end up paying for it. I just can't see someone plopping down $10,000+ on the lowest level trim.

The problem we have is the tax law. If it stays and Ford goes over the 200k units; we now have an extra $7500 in value. If it goes and BBB kicks in, new buyers are staring at getting $12,500 off a brand new truck. At that point assuming pricing holds, they're staying at essentially an XLT at Pro prices. I don't think we'll lose the value but that could swing the equation a bit.

As for the Rivian, it all depends on how the company evolves. I've been with Tesla through the non-autopilot phase. Then from the AP1 to AP2 phase. If we're getting outdated hardware and software in 2023, that $15k price difference will shrink faster than you know it. It all depends on timing. I remember getting a $20k discount on my Model X, thinking how I couldn't lose. Then a year later trying to sell my AP1 MX at a $15k loss - $35k less than MSRP in 2017 for a 2016 model.

Big MSRPs always have more to lose...

My dealer called me and said that I could easily sell my XLT base for $15-20k more than I pay for it.. Based on demand and what's happening with Bronco that doesn't surprise me. I do want to keep the lightning though so its a tough call. Hopefully it holds great value for awhile

 

[Blainestang]

My estimates is my Pro will be able to sell for about $5,000 more than what I'll end up paying for it. I just can't see someone plopping down $10,000+ on the lowest level trim.

I think it would be worth more than that. Pros and XLTs will be pretty rare, and so the only other options are Lariats that start at $67k.

Even if XLTs are available, they'll be marked up, too, so if they're marked up, let's say by even just $5k (which is probably low), that's now $58k for an SR.

The Pro is a MUCH better value than the XLT, so it's only about $3-4k of actual feature cost different than the XLT. So, I bet it would comfortably be ~$50k.

My two cents, anyway.

 

[Yellow Buddy]

I think it would be worth more than that. Pros and XLTs will be pretty rare, and so the only other options are Lariats that start at $67k.

Even if XLTs are available, they'll be marked up, too, so if they're marked up, let's say by even just $5k (which is probably low), that's now $58k for an SR.

The Pro is a MUCH better value than the XLT, so it's only about $3-4k of actual feature cost different than the XLT. So, I bet it would comfortably be ~$50k.

My two cents, anyway.

The $50k mark is what I'm using, hence why I said $5k more than what I would pay.

$39,974 - MSRP
$1,070 - Pro Power
$825 - Max Trailer Tow
$1,695 - Destination & Delivery
$43,564 - MSRP

$498 - Document Fee
$401 - State Title Fee
$7.50 - State Tire Tax
$298 - Window Etching

Total OTD: $44,768.50

And that's for a car in a state with no sales tax on EVs.

 

[maverick92]

Personally, I think backtracking on the price increase is even worse than implementing it retroactively.

1. Was having to increase the price by the truck by roughly 20% overnight. It just screams of "not knowing what we're doing", or building cars without really knowing what they cost. That being said, you're not really going to "offend" anyone if they had just increased the price for new orders.

I applaud Rivian for realizing their mistake and realistically I don't think they had a choice if they wanted to survive. The loss in reservation deposits (aka cancellations) would have been reported in their Q2 earnings and their stock price would have gotten crushed. That's what this is all about... their stock price. They knew they had to increase prices last summer/fall but chose not to jeopardize their IPO.

 

[KevinC]

I wouldn't touch Rivian at the moment. Not their truck and not their stock. There are some credible lawsuits coming out of this from an executive who was fired several months back saying that Rivian knew they couldn't deliver at the prices they were advertising, but they kept them low to keep the order banks full for the IPO. The fuller the order banks the better the IPO would go. They may honor the reservation prices now but they're going to be building at a loss and they're also going to be getting sued left and right. Future orders are going to be the higher price but they wont get past the existing reservations for years. The reputation damage could set back their aspirations of selling at those higher prices. I would worry a little if they will survive long enough to service their warranties. Who knows... they may yet end up as the next Tesla, but it's much more of a gamble than it was a few months ago.

You have to give ford credit for being smart enough not to allow customers to place actual orders and instead just reservations which carried less implied pricing obligation.

 

[FordLightningMan]

The $50k mark is what I'm using, hence why I said $5k more than what I would pay.

$39,974 - MSRP
$1,070 - Pro Power
$825 - Max Trailer Tow
$1,695 - Destination & Delivery
$43,564 - MSRP

$498 - Document Fee
$401 - State Title Fee
$7.50 - State Tire Tax
$298 - Window Etching

Total OTD: $44,768.50

And that's for a car in a state with no sales tax on EVs.

I just don't understand the plan people have to make a few thousand dollars after spending $60k-$90k. I know the saying, "you gotta spend money to make money," but the risk is too high. Maybe the Lightning has bad press on delivery because of vehicle issues, maybe another manufacturer drops a bombshell 450 mile range vehicle at a similar price around delivery, maybe a bill passes that says 2023 EV purchases get a $15k on the spot tax rebate... too many things could go wrong.

My XLT SR will be delivered to me at just under $64k. This is due to the upgrades I find almost mandatory (towing, pro power, tailgate step) and then all of my taxes and fees. I genuinely don't think there's much room there for a profit, especially after tax. Maybe a low/no sales tax state has a better chance to flip than here in NY, but it's still a risky way to make enough money to buy a new TV. ...and that's before the potential of getting audited and needing to pay back $7,500 + penalties for flipping.

 

[hellb0y]

The $50k mark is what I'm using, hence why I said $5k more than what I would pay.

$39,974 - MSRP
$1,070 - Pro Power
$825 - Max Trailer Tow
$1,695 - Destination & Delivery
$43,564 - MSRP

$498 - Document Fee
$401 - State Title Fee
$7.50 - State Tire Tax
$298 - Window Etching

Total OTD: $44,768.50

And that's for a car in a state with no sales tax on EVs.

I think you'd easily be able to flip it at $10k+ profit...Ford will have to increase prices for 2023 or they will deliver these trucks at a significant loss. Look at what Tesla did, they bumped up prices by about $10k - nickel prices have gone up significantly. I'd expect that Pro to start at $46k-$49k for 2023.

 

[Oneand0]

The $50k mark is what I'm using, hence why I said $5k more than what I would pay.

$39,974 - MSRP
$1,070 - Pro Power
$825 - Max Trailer Tow
$1,695 - Destination & Delivery
$43,564 - MSRP

$498 - Document Fee
$401 - State Title Fee
$7.50 - State Tire Tax
$298 - Window Etching

Total OTD: $44,768.50

And that's for a car in a state with no sales tax on EVs.

I’ve been through the Bronco routine and even though the two door base was the lowest you could get, they were selling for an easy 10k or more over, because 2dr hard tops are rare. That Pro you will have, will be extremely rare! You will be surprised what you can get for it, if you just wait a little bit.

 

[EaglesPDX]

I think you'd easily be able to flip it at $10k+ profit

Those of us with pre March 1 Rivian orders can flip for $20-$30k. With Ford likely running out of the EV tax credit by '24 when dealer tells me I'll see my first day reservation order will show up, I can likely buy and flip that for $5k, same premium we see now on Kia EV6's.

The dealers are reaping windfall profits on the EV's, might make them fans vs. disinterested.

 

[dirtdiver]

I dont see a $5-10K profit as worth the hassle to flip this truck. It would only make sense for me if I end up not liking it. Here in CA we pay ~10% tax+ registration which also eats into the profit. Im buying he truck to keep it. steve

 

[Roy2001]

I dont see a $5-10K profit as worth the hassle to flip this truck. It would only make sense for me if I end up not liking it. Here in CA we pay ~10% tax+ registration which also eats into the profit. Im buying he truck to keep it. steve

With recent price increase, $9000 for Lariat ER may worth.

 

[smax64]

I had rivian reserved since 2020 and lighting in early 21...

Rivian pissed me off when they started selling and delivering trucks to people that ordered way after original reservation holders (4/22 and later)... When I received a call from rivian 3 days after I got my LIGHTNING. I thought about flipping it, but at the end said give me my money back... Take back your picture and have a nice day.

Ford is a real truck and not a toy like the rivian, rivian does have more power and more niche stuff, but I needed a full size pick up and ability to have larger support for the brand. RJ seems to sell most of his vehicles to his own employees and "influencers".

That's my 2 cents.

 

[Roy2001]

... When I received a call from rivian 3 days after I got my LIGHTNING. I thought about flipping it, but at the end said give me my money back... Take back your picture and have a nice day.

Did Rivian called you to cancel your order?

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