How will Ford respond to 130,000+ reservations

[EVTrucking]

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[EVTrucking]

Will Ford find a way to get trucks to so many folks in less than 3 yrs?

 

[EVTrucking]

Reservations are up to 150,000.

Ford has announced they will hire additional folks and infuse additional money. This is good news but is it enough?

For mid to late reservations I think it still means a 2-3 yrs of waiting.

On the flip side for us mid to late reservations there are no alternatives.

 

[sotek2345]

Reservations are up to 150,000.

Ford has announced they will hire additional folks and infuse additional money. This is good news but is it enough?

For mid to late reservations I think it still means a 2-3 yrs of waiting.

On the flip side for us mid to late reservations there are no alternatives.

My take away from the announcement (that that for what you will) is that they are trying to hit 80k in 2023. Unknown if the 15k number for 2022 is good or not at this point, but that increase should be enough to get through all reservation holders by the end of 2023 with a reasonable conversion rate.

 

[EVTrucking]

My take away from the announcement (that that for what you will) is that they are trying to hit 80k in 2023. Unknown if the 15k number for 2022 is good or not at this point, but that increase should be enough to get through all reservation holders by the end of 2023 with a reasonable conversion rate.

What do you think the conversion rate will be?

I think it may be as high as 80%. It will also depend on when and if Ford can reach 80,000 in 2023.

Only time will tell.

I was late to reserve my R1T and the Lightning, so I have myself and the mad rush for EV trucks to blame.

 

[Losi]

What do you think the conversion rate will be?

I think it may be as high as 80%. It will also depend on when and if Ford can reach 80,000 in 2023.

Only time will tell.

I was late to reserve my R1T and the Lightning, so I have myself and the mad rush for EV trucks to blame.

I was late to the party as well, which will make the wait that much sweeter (and hopefully things will be improved a little by then—charge stations, etc.)

 

[EVTrucking]

The silver lining……

It is true that the bugs will be worked out and we may get in on some of the battery and charging break throughs. The charging network will be more complete.

The downside for me is that I am 69 and running out of runway.

Thanks for the silver lining reminder.

 

[sotek2345]

What do you think the conversion rate will be?

I think it may be as high as 80%. It will also depend on when and if Ford can reach 80,000 in 2023.

Only time will tell.

I was late to reserve my R1T and the Lightning, so I have myself and the mad rush for EV trucks to blame.

Mach-e and Bronco have been in the 60 percent range. I suspect the Lightning might be a bit later with folks cross shopping with Rivians and Cyber truck (reservation for each, but only want 1 truck). That said, no one really knows.

 

[JJ_Tex]

With a $100 fully-refundable deposit for the Lightning and Tesla Cybertruck, I fully expect both of those to have high cancel rates. The Tesla will likely be even higher, as people have the option to put in an order for each of the 3 different trim packages.

I have reservations for both the Lightning and Tesla, and will probably end up canceling both because I just bought a new F150. Since I have no incentive to cancel now, I'll likely wait for my number to be called for both of those and make a final decision then.

 

[Brian Head Yankee]

You are off base, way off base. The median household income of EV buyers is 150k. Ford will sell every Lighting they build. They do not need ANY reservations to sell out of the truck for years to come! Ford couldn't care less if the reservation conversion rate is zero.

Your "predictions" are wrong. Have you been watching the new and used car market at all?

Do a little research...half of ALL EV sales are in one state. 61,000 EV's were sold in this state in the last QUARTER, making the 2022 Lightning 2022 production of 15,000 a drop in the bucket. Ford could easily sell ALL 80,000 of it's annual production in this state. All of it for years to come without A SINGLE FLEET SALE. The state offers a ton of state incentives stacked on top of the federal incentives. The state I am referring to has MANDATED EV passenger cars and medium duty EV trucks including school buses. The state is also the birthplace of everything tech. The state is the home of the rich and famous.

Have you guessed which state I am referring to?

All Ford has to do is take away a small piece of Tesla sales in one state to sell out for the next 10 years.

 

[Kiggulak]

I was late to reserve my R1T and the Lightning, so I have myself and the mad rush for EV trucks to blame.

By late what date did you reserve on?

I'm going to agree with the conversion factors mentioned previously but go with 80% conversion rate. Considering my dealer (sales monkey) mentioned no penalty for late order cancellation. They know they can re-sell my custom order no matter my configuration.

I know not all dealers and customers are in the same boat. My current daily driver just got a refurb main battery from ford so I'm rolling the dice that I can take delivery on my Lightning before my Focus becomes a parts donor.

 

[jbirdzee]

I am looking forward to knowing if Ford will prioritize certain trims and options when the machines turn on. I think that could have an impact on reservation conversions, but demand will still exceed supply regardless for the foreseeable future.

 

[sotek2345]

I am looking forward to knowing if Ford will prioritize certain trims and options when the machines turn on. I think that could have an impact on reservation conversions, but demand will still exceed supply regardless for the foreseeable future.

Ford did say they planned to communicate with order holders on adjustments they could make to their order to speed delivery. We will have to see if they follow through.

 

[astricklin]

Ford did say they planned to communicate with order holders on adjustments they could make to their order to speed delivery. We will have to see if they follow through.

They are certainly doing this with the bronco and I believe that have done it as well with the option to forgo the start/stop feature on the f150. I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to upsell retail pro orders by telling people they'll get their truck built weeks/months sooner by moving up trim or adding/dropping certain options. If they are battery constrained they may try to get people to move down to the standard batteries. If they have supply issues with any specific part that could play into things as well although hopefully not as a majority of parts are used in the current truck as well. Then of course there's the stupid microchip shortages but I don't believe that there will be a significant amount of different between low and high trims on that other than Blue cruise or not.

 

[sotek2345]

They are certainly doing this with the bronco and I believe that have done it as well with the option to forgo the start/stop feature on the f150. I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to upsell retail pro orders by telling people they'll get their truck built weeks/months sooner by moving up trim or adding/dropping certain options. If they are battery constrained they may try to get people to move down to the standard batteries. If they have supply issues with any specific part that could play into things as well although hopefully not as a majority of parts are used in the current truck as well. Then of course there's the stupid microchip shortages but I don't believe that there will be a significant amount of different between low and high trims on that other than Blue cruise or not.

Yeah - I could see the blue cruise being a sticking point. Possibly The larger screen and Sync 4a - that is shared with the Mach-e, but the 12" screen is shared with the ICE F150 (along with all of the dash trim pieces) and has a larger volume. Power running boards, massaging seats, power rear window - all could be potential hold ups (not as likely though).

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