Ford Will Build 15K Lightning in 2022, 80K+/yr by 2024

[shutterbug]

I think dealers could command at least $1,000 to convert a "Reservation" to an "Order" for the Lightning - perhaps even $2,000 to $2,500. Sure, you will get those funds applied to the purchase price, but there are those people out there that $100 is not too high of a hurdle to put in a "Reservation", but $2,500 (plus the initial $100) to convert to an order may be too much and they decline to convert to an order.

Most dealers would prefer as many reservation converted as possible. That way they would be able to sell abandoned orders of the lot with a huge markup. Putting a $10K markup will produce a whole lot more profit than $2,500 deposit.

Ford will want to have some showroom stock for the dealers as well, so I suspect that the first 5,000 or so units will be stock units rather than retail order units.

Such demo units typically have to be sold after 4 months.

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[vandy1981]

Point Taken - I guess I am more concerned about the new factory and all it's moving parts: robots and their software, worker training, and parts availability when the part is shared with another model - "mount of a ICE F-150 or a Lightning?".
Thanks for helping think this through.

This interview with the chief engineer of the Mustang Mach-E addresses some of your questions: They tried to re-use a lot of Ford parts for the Mustang in order to reduce costs and increase reliability (e.g. they used the Escape's HVAC system for the Mach-E). I suspect they'll do the same for the F150, hopefully, not to a fault.

 

[vandy1981]

If you want a MY22 Lightning and you're very serious about ordering / receiving the vehicle, then I'm guessing you may want to be advocating for a high order down payment to "cut the wheat from the chaffe" as it were.

I think some dealers were requiring non-refundable deposits on the big Bronco. This makes no sense for high-demand vehicles as @shutterbug said--any abandoned order will get stickered with mega-ADM.

It would make total sense to require a non-refundable deposit on a custom-order, highly-trimmed Ecosport, though. That thing would sit on the lot for years if it was abandoned.

 

[Sdctcher]

So let's tease on the thought of "Reservation" versus an "Order". An Order implies that a "Reservation" has been converted through a Ford dealership's ordering system, correct? Meaning that like ordering a combustion-engined F-150, there probably is some sort of additional monies needed to be put down with the Ford dealer to complete the order. So there was a $100 "Reservation" fee that was refundable. Now a customer will be required to put down how much to make the order? Another $500USD? Another $1,000USD? Now the conversation becomes a lot more real to the people who put in a $100 "Reservation". I think dealers could command at least $1,000 to convert a "Reservation" to an "Order" for the Lightning - perhaps even $2,000 to $2,500. Sure, you will get those funds applied to the purchase price, but there are those people out there that $100 is not too high of a hurdle to put in a "Reservation", but $2,500 (plus the initial $100) to convert to an order may be too much and they decline to convert to an order.

The question is then of the 200,000 initial "Reservations" what does the conversion rate look like? FIfty percent (50%)? Twenty five percent (25%)? Let's say that the 15,000 initial production units gets moved up to 20,000 or maybe 25,000 units. A 25% conversion rate of 200,000 units is 50,000 units for the first year - which is double their initial year's production of 25,000. (Hang with me here, just talking out my pie-hole here). Ford will want to have some showroom stock for the dealers as well, so I suspect that the first 5,000 or so units will be stock units rather than retail order units.

It could be feasible that if your Lightning reservation was within 100,000 to 120,000 reservations - depending on the conversion rate to actual orders - that you MIGHT get to see a MY22 Lightning.

If you want a MY22 Lightning and you're very serious about ordering / receiving the vehicle, then I'm guessing you may want to be advocating for a high order down payment to "cut the wheat from the chaffe" as it were.

Just my $0.02 . . . . If someone has already hypothesized this scenario on another thread - my apologies in advance.

It will be interesting to hear how much, if any money, will be required to actually order. Some of us want to do as much as possible online and avoid the salesman. And a lot of reserved wanna bees cannot come up with much out of pocket money without financing or trade in.

Also factor in first calendar year builds for Fall 2022 when, I would bet, the Lightning factory will gear up to new orders in Sept. with first deliveries of 2023 in Oct-Nov. like other FMC truck models. After the first model year they usually get back to a normal schedule. They did this (I am dating myself here) with the second year of my 2005 Ford Escape Hybrid. I ordered one of the first in CA in August, 2004, and took delivery in November, 2004.

 

[sotek2345]

Well, given I was a little late to reserve (currently about 90k in line or so as a best guess). If they have any reasonable conversion rate, I am looking at a 2024 or 2025 model.

Really really hoping these numbers are false.

 

[RLXXI]

a lot of reserved wanna bees cannot come up with much out of pocket money without financing or trade in.

Good point I hadn't thought about and I bet there's a bunch. Hopefully most of them can't afford it when it comes time to open the wallet reserved early so the line will open up for serious buyers early.

 

[RLXXI]

This also increases the likelihood that the MME will wash out Ford's allotment of tax credits before there is meaningful F150L production (assuming there isn't a favorable change in the current federal credit scheme).

I hope not. While I did plan my budget around not getting the tax credit, it sure would be nice to have it.

 

[bboy_72]

This has been discussed extensively...short answer, no.

I can’t find the discussion on the forum.

 

[RLXXI]

I can’t find the discussion on the forum.

Weak, your googlefoo is.

Most of it is in this thread although it's been discussed in other threads.

 

[Sdctcher]

I hope not. While I did plan my budget around not getting the tax credit, it sure would be nice to have it.

I really do not think you should spend a lot of time worrying about the rebate. The smart money is on a scenero whereas the parties (Labor vs Corp., GM and Tesla vs Ford) will not be able to agree this year (in the proposed 3.5 T Bill) on any big changes in tax credit law and this will not be decided until after the 2022 elections. As a buyer of the Platinum I am hoping they do not put in any limitation of income or cost of vehicle until I buy. Also I want to pull a substantial amount out of my IRA to fully use the $7,500 in 2022 credited in 2023.

I do think they will reset the credit next year to reopen to other brands who have already used their allotment but otherwise leave the big changes to later. I also hope they will allow a tax credit for installation of home and business charger stations.

 

[greenne]

Well, given I was a little late to reserve (currently about 90k in line or so as a best guess). If they have any reasonable conversion rate, I am looking at a 2024 or 2025 model.

Really really hoping these numbers are false.

Sotek-- what number reservation number are you? (Keep in mind the strict reservation numbers cover ALL reservations for Ford so you may not be as far back as you think). I'm between 100k and 120k based on Fords reservation announcements..but if you go strictly by the number (#110'ish) it looks like I'm 200k.

 

[RonTCat]

Well, given I was a little late to reserve (currently about 90k in line or so as a best guess). If they have any reasonable conversion rate, I am looking at a 2024 or 2025 model.

Really really hoping these numbers are false.

Unfortunately, those are good estimates for reservations and actual capacity...

 

[sotek2345]

As I think about this, why would Ford be marketing and showing off the Lightning so much if they are already sold out for years with any reasonable conversion rate.

 

[greenne]

Well, given I was a little late to reserve (currently about 90k in line or so as a best guess). If they have any reasonable conversion rate, I am looking at a 2024 or 2025 model.

Really really hoping these numbers are false.

Food for thought.. the conversion rate(reservation to order) for the Bronco was/is around 66%.

 

[sotek2345]

Sotek-- what number reservation number are you? (Keep in mind the strict reservation numbers cover ALL reservations for Ford so you may not be as far back as you think). I'm between 100k and 120k based on Fords reservation announcements..but if you go strictly by the number (#110'ish) it looks like I'm 200k.

Reservation number is 10968977, so about 150kish in line assuming the start was 1082xxxx

My guesstimate of 90k in line is because I reserved on 6/3, shortly before they announced 100k reservations

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