Ford kept the Mustang Mach E deliveries close to on schedule even with COVID-19. In November 2019 they promised deliveries starting late 2020. They delivered 4 into customer hands in December 2020, lots more in January 2021, and started deliveries in earnest in February 2021. Much of the software for the Lightning has been tested in or is derived from the Mach E.Disagree, there are already a few dozen/hundred out running around. If they miss opening the order board on schedule this fall then the red flags go up.
Farley keeps talking about deliveries Spring 2022. I'll bet most of us who reserved fast and order fast will have ours in Summer 2022.