Digesting the 70% price gap between the XLT and Platinum Lightning.

[Horse-E]

One of the reasons I sold my Tesla: DIdn't want to own it when a huge tax credit gets reinstated and have the value drop by thousands in a day.

Eh, price is just going to go up to offset, it’s already been increasing stealthily.

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[jaspercasidino]

This is correct. Also, it won’t expire until EVs have 50% market saturation. That’s a long time. Additionally, here in Colorado, we have another $2500 tax credit. I could end up with $15000 off MSRP.

I’m still looking for confirmation on this but the wording of the bill seems to change this from a standard tax credit to something similar to an Earned Income Tax Credit. That means everyone can get it instead of just people that pay more than $7500 (or $12500) in taxes.

That said, this is still just a bill and it’s still in negotiation. A lot can change before it comes law.

Section II.B.3 of the Chairman's Mark of the The Clean Energy for America Act states the following:

Beginning January 1, 2022, the proposal makes the EV credit a refundable personal income tax credit for vehicles acquired on or after that date.

That whole section is proposed to be modified with the Stabenow Amendment#1 (see page 3). The Clean Energy for America Act Chairmans Modified Mark further modifies the EV incentive in Section A.7 which is where the union and final assembly in USA $2,500 incentives come in.

Also of interest is that the USA final assembly credit looks to increase from $2,500 to $5,000 for vehicles sold after December 31, 2025.

I imagine that these numbers will be trimmed quite a bit by the time they reach the floor (50% EV sales and CY26 $5,000 final assembly credit in particular IMO). Rejection of the modifications failed by 14-14 vote (see amendment #92). (Vote was strictly down party lines. )

 

[astricklin]

One of the reasons I sold my Tesla: DIdn't want to own it when a huge tax credit gets reinstated and have the value drop by thousands in a day.

I solve this problem by keeping my vehicle till it's worth nothing anyway ?

 

[newF150]

This is correct. Also, it won’t expire until EVs have 50% market saturation. That’s a long time. Additionally, here in Colorado, we have another $2500 tax credit. I could end up with $15000 off MSRP.

I’m still looking for confirmation on this but the wording of the bill seems to change this from a standard tax credit to something similar to an Earned Income Tax Credit. That means everyone can get it instead of just people that pay more than $7500 (or $12500) in taxes.

That said, this is still just a bill and it’s still in negotiation. A lot can change before it comes law.

Here in NJ it'll be direct $5k rebate plus there's no sales tax on EVs.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Where will the Lariat land?
I have been analyzing and comparing ICE model price differences to try to better understand the huge gap between the Lightning XLT and Platinum price.

Things to remember: It doesn't matter what it cost to make, it's what they can get away with charging. There is no direct competition to the Lightning. The Mach-E is a direct competitor with the Tesla Model Y and it's pricing shows that, same with Bronco v. Wrangler. The best comp I can come up with to the Lightning is the hybrid F-150. Out the door price gap between an optioned XLT and Platinum however is only 24% on the Hybrid F-150.

Hopefully this picture is readable. I'm estimating out the door price of optioned XLT and Lariat. I have low expectations of meeting my budget, hoping for an upside surprise come order time at the end of the year

Thanks for these estimates. I'm wondering how you came to your upper-end estimates. Ford says on their website:

Reserve Your F-150 Lightning
Be among the first to own the all-new 2022 Ford F-150 Lightning. Choose your dealer, fill out the reservation form and make a reservation. The entry model starts at $39,974 MSRP (commercial-oriented). More-equipped mid-series (XLT) starts at $52,974 MSRP, offering additional comfort and technology. MSRP starting at $39,974 up to around $90,474.1

I've also been watching various YouTube previews of the Lightning and both Ford spokespersons and announcer/analysts armed with information from Ford keep repeating that a fully-loaded Platinum will be around $90K. Do you think your estimates may be about $5K too high, especially at the upper end?

 

[EaglesPDX]

The comparison shows the tow package only available on the low end Lariat starting at $70K which is $10k cheaper than the XLT without it.

I'm hoping to get out of Dodge with $60k before rebates with 300 mile range, tow package and Ford 360. Everything else is a frill for me.

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