Battery pack longevity

ExCivilian

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You could click the link to the data posted above and look at it but I think you'll find any of the useful life stats for ICE longevity ends up in the same 10 year space. Just coincidence that the useful life data for ICE and EV battery are in the same range. That coinicidence of data does answer the OP'S question. No, he should not worry about EV battery longevity any more than he worried about ICE longevity.
I don't know why some people have this habit of linking to things they either didn't read or think no one else will read, but the link does *not* have the methodology regarding how they calculated the "average" age of vehicles. There are three different ways to calculate an "average:" mean, median, and mode. Almost always, the mean is used to calculate averages or at least that's what most people will think of when they think "average." You all remember this from school being calculated as add all the cars' ages and divide by number of cars.

The problem with using mean averages is they don't control for outliers. For examples, this 10 year averages means for every vehicle that gets into a wreck around four years into its lifespan there's an equal number of vehicles that are least 16 years old to hit that 10 year average. We'd want to see how many vehicles are totaled within their first four years because we know that 25% of the vehicles on the road are 16 years old or older (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/25p...t-least-sixteen-years-old----record-high.html).

To get a sense of outliers, we'd want to see how many of the oldest vehicles are on the road. A few years back Toyota claimed that 80% of vehicles on the road are at least 20 years old. We wouldn't recognize that data in a data set using mean averages if a substantial amount of vehicles are totaled within the first couple years. We also haven't compared the differences between cars and trucks. In this data, we see that trucks have longer lifespans than passengers cars and "other trucks" are nearly double that of passenger cars (https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age-automobiles-and-trucks-operation-united-states).

We haven't even explored what is meant by "age." We don't know if they're discussing how long the original owner keeps the vehicle, how long before it's taken out of service, or what taken out of service would even mean. It doesn't help the argument that ICE is as short-lived as EV battery packs if "out of service" means "removes power train and installs it into other 20 year old vehicle without rust/collision damage" because we aren't comparing power plants at this point but rather build quality of the vehicle containing them.

Not only that, but the article is an argument against the point being made in this thread: the article is explicitly about the rising average lifespan of ICE vehicles. The headline is that the average has risen to twelve years, not ten as being claimed in this thread, and points out in the second paragraph, "[w]hereas 20 years ago a car might have changed hands once or twice and lasted 100,000 miles, it is more common today for a car to have multiple owners and last for 200,000 miles or more."

It's incorrect to claim that EV longevity is the same as ICE longevity and that people should be unconcerned about longevity or resale after a decade of use. I would love to order a SR and simply upgrade the pack with a solid state pack and/or greater capacity pack in ten years. Vehicle manufacturers, however, have been actively moving away from consumers doing their own work on vehicles. This is likely to become more difficult with time, not less, especially given the relationship between devices and code. That is, software limitations can be coded into devices so they can't be replaced, repaired, or altered by end-users. It could be technologically possible but unrealistic to swap packs because of firmware limitations. Laws could be implemented to protect the consumer but the Right to Repair movement is highlighting how unlikely it's going to be to implement such a framework of laws. Meanwhile, fuels, fluids, and filters continue to make enormous strides in extending the longevity of our current vehicle technology.

I'm an EV proponent, and have driven them for years, but I caution against overly optimistic predictions of reduced costs over time in order to encourage adoption. I don't think the majority of drivers are taking their vehicles somewhere for $200 dollar oil changes but even if they are that cost would still pale in comparison to replacing tires on a 7,000lb vehicle every two years for roughly $1,500.
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DadBald

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Wow you think it'll be that much? I mean... I get it. But 2 years ain't very long.
 

sotek2345

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Wow you think it'll be that much? I mean... I get it. But 2 years ain't very long.
Really depends on the tires, how many miles you drive, how your drive, and how much payload you normally carry. Lightning tires will wear a little faster than ICE F150 tires due to the extra weight, but no faster than an F250 (as an example).
 

EaglesPDX

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the link does *not* have the methodology regarding how they calculated the "average" age of vehicles.
It was average useful life of ICE not vehicles. As for their methodology, you need to look at their sources and dig in if you want that detail. They just posted the results BUT the results are consistent with all the other posted data.

And does the result make sense? Yes, ICE engines wear out in predictable time frame based on usage.

To the OP's question, no, do not worry about the longevity of the battery any more than you worried about the longevity of your ICE.
 

metroshot

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With BEV vehicles, maintenance items are a lot less than ICE or PHEV vehicles.

EV cars typically only need: tires, wipers, brakes, and suspension components.

My PHEV has oil changes every year, tires due for change at 40K miles, and the brakes don't need to be touched (currently at 70% after 36K miles drive) due to the regen braking...
17kWh battery pack is warranted for 10 years in CA, longer than I will keep her!
 

ExCivilian

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Wow you think it'll be that much? I mean... I get it. But 2 years ain't very long.
The trend right now is to use wagon wheels with minimal sidewall, eco tire composition, with LRR treads, and the battery packs are increasing standard passenger vehicle weight by an extra 1500-2000lbs.

With our ID.4 VW used staggered wheels so they can't even be rotated. We sold ours after a few months so I can't say how long they were going to last but the other FE (first edition) owners in the forum are reporting their rear tires are already 2/10s worn and they've only been driving on them for around 6 months with 10-12K miles.

When we had our eGolf I didn't even think about the tires because it was a lease and when we turned it in at the 3 year mark (with 18,000 miles) the front tires were bald.

Maybe they will last three years instead of two but I don't see how it will be more than that.

It was average useful life of ICE not vehicles. As for their methodology, you need to look at their sources and dig in if you want that detail. They just posted the results BUT the results are consistent with all the other posted data.

And does the result make sense? Yes, ICE engines wear out in predictable time frame based on usage.

To the OP's question, no, do not worry about the longevity of the battery any more than you worried about the longevity of your ICE.
Unless you're referring to a different article in the thread than the one that was linked, the methodology is not included in the article. No amount of "digging" is going to unearth their methodology because it's not provided; it's not my responsibility as the reader to do that anyway. Are we reading the same article? The linked article I thought you directed me to in-thread was about vehicles not "engines" although conversations are going to frequently conflate the two. This distinction you've made seems absurd to me. I would be stunned if anyone in this conversation is thinking about the engine's longevity in a vacuum separate from the vehicle as a whole. Even if the original question was asked with that in mind, vehicles tend to be taken off the road because of the rest of the car--not the engine itself. If anyone is thinking about the issue in those terms I would argue that it's irrelevant given the fact the rest of the car is unlikely to last as long as a modern power train.

When engines do exhibit wear and tear they can be rebuilt and don't just get tossed in a landfill. The only article posted so far argues against this claim that ICEngines are short-lived and instead points out longevity is extending every year. The assertion that engines wear out in ten years most definitely does not line up with anything that's been asserted or posted elsewhere. In fact, it's a ridiculous claim refuted by the life experiences of many in this thread and is not backed by any scientific data. I'm uncertain why this seems to be the point you want to hammer on so broadly but it's undermining your overall conclusion, in my opinion.


I went back through my post and edited several sentences I thought were too strongly worded. I also don't want to devolve the thread into bickering over what is, in all likelihood, a minor point in the overall discussion regarding longevity of EVs. To that end, I'd agree that reliability of solid state electronics are at least on par, and tend to exceed, mechanical systems. The downside is that they aren't being built for component replacement. If a minor, inexpensive part fails the entire system needs to be replaced. That is, a motor is going to spin longer than an engine but if a diode fails the whole thing gets sent in as a core because there aren't any Radio Shacks to go to anymore compared to the near infinite replacements, refinements, and refurbishing that can be done to a mechanical engine.

If someone is concerned about keeping an EV longer than 8-10 years (the current warranty periods that are based on statutory mandates rather than industry standard tests), I think you should account for a 20% reduction in capacity due to best practices for charging, 20% reduction to account for age-related degradation, and then consider the conditions you'll be driving (cold climate, towing, etc.). So right off the bat consumers need to think about what the capacity is going to be in the middle and end of their ownership rather than when purchased. Some degradation can't be controlled--it's baked into the current technology. A 230 range EV has an effective range of ~140 (before accounting for towing or extreme weather conditions) if you take those issues into consideration.
 
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EaglesPDX

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Unless you're referring to a different article in the thread than the one that was linked, the methodology is not included in the article.
But the source is and if you want detailed methodology behind the data you have to dig for it.

Again, all the data sources come to same result with an average 10 year life for an ICE which means the OP need not worry about battery longevity any more than he worried about ICE longevity.
 

Kiggulak

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With BEV vehicles, maintenance items are a lot less than ICE or PHEV vehicles.

EV cars typically only need: tires, wipers, brakes, and suspension components.

My PHEV has oil changes every year, tires due for change at 40K miles, and the brakes don't need to be touched (currently at 70% after 36K miles drive) due to the regen braking...
17kWh battery pack is warranted for 10 years in CA, longer than I will keep her!
Don't forget 12V battery ... the F150 uses the 12Vdc to power in vehicle accessories and the Power Lift on the Frunk (it lives in the panel in the frunk on the Lightning). Mostly because it doesn't make sense to step down from the high voltage (traction) battery when they have the ICE 12Vdc power system they can share between platforms. Power door locks, headlights, radio infotainment, remote start, many other in car systems run off the 12Vdc battery. Most EVs have a regular 12Vdc battery buried somewhere and it recharges off the traction battery like the alternator. However it does die and can completely disable your vehicle because the brains of the car run off the 12Vdc rail.
 

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But the source is
No, it isn't. The article you posted states engines last at least 200,000 miles, an average of 12+ years, and staying on the road longer than they ever have.

The article directly argues against your point and explictly refutes your claims in this thread, which have been demonstrated to be unsubtantiated and patently false.

You didn't bother to read the methodology you claim exists because if you had you would have linked it instead of saying that's my job to find. That's not how academic discourse functions, nor how debates operate, and instead how unfounded opinions, like yours, are formed and spread as misinformation.
 

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Don't forget cycles on a battery also depends on how high you charge it. The battery will last A LOT longer charging between 20-70% than it will from 0-100% or even 20-90%. If you can keep the max daily charge (if it is charged daily) to 70 or 80%, it should degrade a lot slower.
If you watch my video from the Ford Lightning Tour Daytona I ask Max about how Ford manages the battery pack in the Lightning compared to the Focus Electric to protect the battery by never taking the pack to 100% SOC.

Also in this video (7:20+) we discuss the liquid cooling system in the Lightning and how the owner has to activate the remote start to engage liquid cooling when not plugged in or driving. True for hot or cold weather.

This is true for Ford Focus Electric and should be true for the Mach-E and the Lightning.

You can drop the battery with 8 bolts and replace individual cells in the Lighting battery pack ... so no need to replace the entire pack.

Not sure if there is data on battery pack performance with mixed new and old cells but @MickeyAO might know or can point us in the right direction.
 

SteffanG

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Don't forget 12V battery ... the F150 uses the 12Vdc to power in vehicle accessories and the Power Lift on the Frunk (it lives in the panel in the frunk on the Lightning). Mostly because it doesn't make sense to step down from the high voltage (traction) battery when they have the ICE 12Vdc power system they can share between platforms. Power door locks, headlights, radio infotainment, remote start, many other in car systems run off the 12Vdc battery. Most EVs have a regular 12Vdc battery buried somewhere and it recharges off the traction battery like the alternator. However it does die and can completely disable your vehicle because the brains of the car run off the 12Vdc rail.
The 12VDC system is there as all of the components and computers for cars run off of 12VDC, it wouldn't make sense to redesign everything for 400VDC or 800VDC.
The other concern with anything but 12VDC (maybe 24VDC but again that requires a redesign) is safety. Do you really want to work on the car when there is high voltage wires everywhere? Also, what happens if you are in an accident? That is a lot of exposed high voltage wiring going everywhere. For safety reasons there will likely always be a low voltage battery to run all the vehicle systems.

Another reason is cost. 400/800V insulation is a lot heavier and expensive than one for 12V.

Also, the reason the car becomes undriveable when the 12VDC battery dies is there is a main contactor on the high voltage battery for safety. When the car is off, the contactor is open so all high voltage wires have no voltage present. The contactor is turned on and off from that 12V battery. Now if only the manufactures would put in a system to recognize that the 12V battery is getting low, give a warning that the HV battery is going to turn on, and charge up the 12V battery to make sure it doesn't die (or at least put in a battery management system like Audi uses - when the battery starts getting low it starts switching off systems to prevent it from dying)
 
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DadBald

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Regarding this topic, agreed it doesn't make sense to redesign the wheel - keeping the 12v equipment is a no brainer given everything mentioned above. I'm surprised they didn't just put in a transformer circuit to run all the 12v stuff off of the high voltage battery though. The 12v battery seems completely redundant and over complicated... But given the whole contactor thing you mentioned I guess I get that. Needs something to enable and disable the big battery. It's just a single point of failure for bricking the whole vehicle though.
 

GarageMahal

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Regarding this topic, agreed it doesn't make sense to redesign the wheel - keeping the 12v equipment is a no brainer given everything mentioned above. I'm surprised they didn't just put in a transformer circuit to run all the 12v stuff off of the high voltage battery though. The 12v battery seems completely redundant and over complicated... But given the whole contactor thing you mentioned I guess I get that. Needs something to enable and disable the big battery. It's just a single point of failure for bricking the whole vehicle though.
They do have a DC to DC converter that generally does "run all the 12v stuff off the high voltage battery". The 12v battery is there for when vehicle is "off".
 
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DadBald

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That makes a little more sense then.
 

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