10/24/22 - Build Week - MY 23

[Matt99]

Was Q3 that bad? Any reason why?

They had a 10% growth over last year and great cash flow (the good) but over 1bil in increased supplier payments and a huge blunder with that AI firm.

The report of 40k vehicles on chip hold also is said to be worrying investors, because FMC pretty much said they would be finished q4 and it's looking like a TON of them will not be finished....So you have product that is essentially rotting in a field that will cost money to refurbish after so long, increasing interest rates are decreasing orders, and people are abandoning orders due to wait. It could have been worse, or at least that's what I gathered from the stockholder minutes.

Also...my truck is now on day 9 sitting in the Blue Island, IL junction yard. That worries me with the upcoming railroad strike looking like it could actually happen. ETA got pushed AGAIN to 12/14 which makes 6 ETA changes.

ETA- well hell...I just got a message from VinView saying it's in Pearland despite Ford/UP saying it's still in Illinois so who knows. That would be my final railyard before convoy to my dealer.

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[bwwF150]

They had a 10% growth over last year and great cash flow (the good) but over 1bil in increased supplier payments and a huge blunder with that AI firm.

The report of 40k vehicles on chip hold also is said to be worrying investors, because FMC pretty much said they would be finished q4 and it's looking like a TON of them will not be finished....So you have product that is essentially rotting in a field that will cost money to refurbish after so long, increasing interest rates are decreasing orders, and people are abandoning orders due to wait. It could have been worse, or at least that's what I gathered from the stockholder minutes.

Also...my truck is now on day 9 sitting in the Blue Island, IL junction yard. That worries me with the upcoming railroad strike looking like it could actually happen. ETA got pushed AGAIN to 12/14 which makes 6 ETA changes.

ETA- well hell...I just got a message from VinView saying it's in Pearland despite Ford/UP saying it's still in Illinois so who knows. That would be my final railyard before convoy to my dealer.

“Ford in September partially pre-released its results, including projected adjusted earnings before interest and taxes in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.7 billion — some analysts had been expecting a quarterly profit closer to $3 billion — but affirmed full-year guidance of adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of between $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion.


On Oct26 Ford updated its guidance to forecast full-year adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of about $11.5 billion. It raised its full-year adjusted free cash flow forecast, however, to between $9.5 billion and $10 billion – up from $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion – on strength in the company's automotive operations.”



they need to ship a bunch of high $, high profit$ vehicles (ie F150) to hit those #s!

 

[mrblonde]

If they would label the 22's as 23's and ship them...problem solved. Who's going to know?

 

[bfastr]

Q3 was not great for Ford and they’ve committed a big Q4. I struggle to see them not shipping for revenue if they have vehicles to ship. Especially with rail strikes (edit: rail strike possibilities), they should be shipping as many as possible to hit their Q4 revenue commitment.

I was thinking the same thing, seems to me they would want to "sell" as many as they can by year end.

 

[PatchManager]

What does your window sticker say? Just curious. I am still awaiting shipment but my sticker shows convoy. so I would assume it is convoy from Dearborn to the dealer. but I have no idea.

Here is mine:

 

[golong93]

Checked in with Ford Chat, still no movement, have been built, awaiting shipment since 11/12. FC confirmed that truck is still at the plant and has not been moved to a ramp. Doesn't appear to be much movement within this build week unfortunately.

Said delivery date is still 12/10, dealer told me 12/15 yesterday. Doubtful for either one of those, expecting delivery after the new year.

 

[collinma40]

Had a chat with Ford again today. Apparently I was purchased to 12/4 for a "delivered by" date to the dealership. It's clearly not going to happen but they did advise that "once it ships, it goes fast". The dealership isn't at all optimistic and neither am I. At least the F150 isn't suffering like some other Ford models where there is a stop delivery order until repairs are made (recalls).

 

[bwwF150]

Received VVR update from granger(below). Shows in transit (with convoy#), but comment still says on chip hold? I’m guessing i’ll know soon if it’s moving?

Is it possible to track the Convoy#2517669

Quick update from ford chat (don’t want to bug Granger everyday):
“I see that the vehicle is in transit. The rail car information shows Railcar # CN 710855 (Norfolk Southern Corp ). The location shows Ramp 58, Melvindale, MI. The ETA shows Dec 04-Dec 10, 2022.”

 

[bwwF150]

Found this with searching forum for Norfolk southern:


“Get rail car number (ford chat or dealer). Then I called the hotline like 3 times a day its all automated which is nice. Got to the point I had all the numbers memorized. It took 3 days to get to KC.

Ill throw this out there for future reference since it will probably ship Norfolk Southern as well.
- Dial 800-635-5768
- Press 2 on the first set of options, Press 2 on the second set of options
- Then you enter the railcar Letters, Mine was AOK so 265 press # at the end
- Then you enter the railcar numbers, press # at the end
- Wait and listen”

 

[bigman6166]

Found this with searching forum for Norfolk southern:


“Get rail car number (ford chat or dealer). Then I called the hotline like 3 times a day its all automated which is nice. Got to the point I had all the numbers memorized. It took 3 days to get to KC.

Ill throw this out there for future reference since it will probably ship Norfolk Southern as well.
- Dial 800-635-5768
- Press 2 on the first set of options, Press 2 on the second set of options
- Then you enter the railcar Letters, Mine was AOK so 265 press # at the end
- Then you enter the railcar numbers, press # at the end
- Wait and listen”

Mine has been “built” since 10/31. Still hasn’t shipped. I don’t get it. It’s frustrating.

 

[bwwF150]

Mine has been “built” since 10/31. Still hasn’t shipped. I don’t get it. It’s frustrating.

I definitely don’t understand their algorithm on what ships and what doesn’t!

 

[jjackamn]

Mine has been “built” since 10/31. Still hasn’t shipped. I don’t get it. It’s frustrating.

Same build date here and no shipment yet. Six ETA’s have past

 

[bwwF150]

Found this with searching forum for Norfolk southern:


“Get rail car number (ford chat or dealer). Then I called the hotline like 3 times a day its all automated which is nice. Got to the point I had all the numbers memorized. It took 3 days to get to KC.

Ill throw this out there for future reference since it will probably ship Norfolk Southern as well.
- Dial 800-635-5768
- Press 2 on the first set of options, Press 2 on the second set of options
- Then you enter the railcar Letters, Mine was AOK so 265 press # at the end
- Then you enter the railcar numbers, press # at the end
- Wait and listen”

I found this interesting on rail/convoy: https://www.up.com/customers/track-record/tr050520-auto-factory-to-dealership.htm

 

[bwwF150]

Quick update from ford chat (don’t want to bug Granger everyday):
“I see that the vehicle is in transit. The rail car information shows Railcar # CN 710855 (Norfolk Southern Corp ). The location shows Ramp 58, Melvindale, MI. The ETA shows Dec 04-Dec 10, 2022.”

I called norfolk southern tracker hotline ... it said rail car is at Voltz (KC rail yard) as of 819a this morning?!?!

 

[Dizman]

I called norfolk southern tracker hotline ... it said rail car is at Voltz (KC rail yard) as of 819a this morning?!?!

Don’t get too excited, mine has been at Voltz for almost three weeks now after having been shipped on 10/28. Arrived at Voltz on the 3rd and has sat ever since…. It’s a Granger order so only a few hundred miles to go on a car carrier, no idea what the hold up is. Date keeps moving in the VVR too. Latest is to Granger by Dec. 1st. Oh well.

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