? Lightning Ordering WAVE 2 Emails Are Out!

[Fingers99]

I'm definitely in the TexasGuy camp. This dealer "thing" is wrong but it has been since I can remember and I don't expect Ford to be able to fix it just for this first batch of Lightnings. I wanted to think the timestamp meant something when I jumped in on the 19th. The prioritizing I expect but is really chicken shit . Hell I just found out about a friend of a friend that got offered the first truck without a reservation. The dealer is his best friend and I'll bet he will get it. I wanted to know when for planning purposes and taxes but I bet if I get kicked to 2023 it will be easier to get what I want without playing musical dealers and chasing the ADM crap. Without a crystal ball nobody can figure out what the feds will do with the rebate.
I figure Ford will ramp up production as fast as they can. It's not like they'll build the first batch then take 3 months off. Call it a 2022 or 2023 I figure a good chance of a build date by the end of the year. I sure ain't gonna twist up my panties real tight over it. Gawdamn it's only a truck !!
Cheers and C-ya

There is no misinformation at our dealership. We are getting 4 allocations for the 2022 model. Ford will only be able to build about 15k lightnings for the 2022 year which is a short year. Ford went form 50k to 80k to 150k units for 2023. There are over 3k Ford dealers in the US and just over 2k of them are EV dealers. If 15k was accurate and the allocations were distributed evenly, that would only be 7 per store.

Sponsored

 

[TexasGuy]

There is no misinformation at our dealership. We are getting 4 allocations for the 2022 model. Ford will only be able to build about 15k lightnings for the 2022 year which is a short year. Ford went form 50k to 80k to 150k units for 2023. There are over 3k Ford dealers in the US and just over 2k of them are EV dealers. If 15k was accurate and the allocations were distributed evenly, that would only be 7 per store.

I am concluding that based upon; a) the number of vehicles I expect Ford to build in 2022 (15k-20k), b) the number of people who reserved the same day (about 20k), comments herein that a good percentage of folks will elect not to convert reservations to orders (10%-30%), that anyone who reserved on 5/19 will be given an opportunity to order a lightning for 2022 delivery. Yes, some may not be able to order the model they want or pay a price for the options that they think is fair, but they will have the opportunity to order.

Sticking with the numbers. If Ford builds 15k +/- Lightnings in '22 and there were only 15k-20k reservations placed on the first day, it would appear that generally the above conclusion is correct.

As evidenced by the number of folks that have said they want a Pro model that is already sold out or have decided to cancel their reservation, it would appear that 15k=15k, so with the exception of dealers that have used their priority discretion to advance others, every first day reservation holder should "have the opportunity to order."

 

[Ccarm6]

Sticking with the numbers. If Ford builds 15k +/- Lightnings in '22 and there were only 15k-20k reservations placed on the first day, it would appear that generally the above conclusion is correct.

As evidenced by the number of folks that have said they want a Pro model that is already sold out or have decided to cancel their reservation, it would appear that 15k=15k, so with the exception of dealers that have used their priority discretion to advance others, every first day reservation holder should "have the opportunity to order."

That’s a rather large exception/assumption. Most dealers I’ve come into contact with and seen at least on this forum have submitted a priority list and I’m betting at least a majority of priority list reservations are not day 1 reservation holders, bumping quite a lot of people from MY22 ordering. Not to mention the ZEV state preference that appears to be becoming more and more evident.

Also, I don’t know about anyone else but my dealer called me to gauge my interest/put me on the priority list, if the other dealers that partook in the priority lists did the same I’m assuming the conversion rate to order is going to be pretty high from dealer’s priority lists (aside from people who won’t order because of the lack of their desired model).

 

[13_F150]

I asked a GSM friend in GA that said they had no wave 2 and will only be getting 2 lightnings. Another large volume GA dealer is getting 5 lightnings for MY22. My dealer in SoFL claims they don't know their allocation, but only has 1 order in and no wave 2. I'm priority 2 and have not ordered yet.

 

[Ford Senior Master]

Yeah, it seems wave 2 may have been smaller than wave 1, which is not what was expected.

I'm not sure it was smaller. It was definitely more regional as can be seen by the high number of orders from CA.

 

[astricklin]

Sticking with the numbers. If Ford builds 15k +/- Lightnings in '22 and there were only 15k-20k reservations placed on the first day, it would appear that generally the above conclusion is correct.

As evidenced by the number of folks that have said they want a Pro model that is already sold out or have decided to cancel their reservation, it would appear that 15k=15k, so with the exception of dealers that have used their priority discretion to advance others, every first day reservation holder should "have the opportunity to order."

'everyone who reserved in the first 24 hours should have the opportunity to order' is a very flawed assumption. Let's say a smaller dealership happens to have a large number of early reservations because they aren't charging ADM and most other dealers in the area are. So they have 10 'day one' reservations. However because they sell relatively few F-150s, they are only getting 2 my 2023 allocations. These numbers are made up, but this is the situation that is occurring at dealerships like Granger.
Now another scenario that is occurring is that let's say a large dealership has hundreds of overall reservations and 20 day one reservations. However they are allowed to prioritize 25 reservation holders and place them at the front of the line. This dealer gets 20 allocations but because they were able to prioritize 25 later reservations, the 20 day one reservations will not get an invite to order for 2022.

Because Ford has some sort of formula to determine a set allocation of vehicles and they also allowed prioritization, not everyone who has a reservation that was made within the first 24 hours will get invited to order for the 2022 model year.
Ford is not simply going through the list of reservations in timestamp order and this is why people are upset.

 

[GOFAST]

My decision flow

- Pro Model Sold Out
- I don’t expect pro to become a priority if Lariats and Platinums continue to sell.
- Ford is likely to lose govt incentives on EVs before I will get to order
- BBB could potentially come back and put Lariat on the table if $12.5K rebate passes
- Rivian doesn’t have dealers that play games so I know my place in line, expected delivery window , and I’m confident I’ll get tax incentive through them.
- Unless BBB comes into play between now and Rivian order time, I’m going that route and will cancel shortly after my Rivian paperwork is signed. I’m one to not make a decision until I have to - but I’m almost looking forward to canceling my reservation with Ford.

For those who can afford to wait until 24, I expect a lot more competition in the BEV truck market.

 

[FordLightningMan]

Anyone else put in a Wave 2 order right away and their dealer still hasn't accepted it? I'm worried mine won't accept before wave 3 at this point. They said on their end their acceptance has no impact on delivery time, but I'm not entirely sure I agree with this statement.

One quick point about not wanting to deal with dealerships, I had a Tesla with no service station near me and it wasn't good. Now there is one near me, life is great and I have no issues with Tesla. I wouldn't currently buy a Rivian for this reason, people like to bash a dealer until something goes wrong. These new EVs with all their tech simply can't be fixed by the local mechanic. Unless there is a written contract Rivian will be at my house within 24 hours with a repairman, I am not interested in that situation ever again. In 5 years Rivian may have a repair shop in most major cities, but until they do, it's a significant risk to the buyer.

 

[F150ROD]

Anyone else put in a Wave 2 order right away and their dealer still hasn't accepted it? I'm worried mine won't accept before wave 3 at this point. They said on their end their acceptance has no impact on delivery time, but I'm not entirely sure I agree with this statement.

One quick point about not wanting to deal with dealerships, I had a Tesla with no service station near me and it wasn't good. Now there is one near me, life is great and I have no issues with Tesla. I wouldn't currently buy a Rivian for this reason, people like to bash a dealer until something goes wrong. These new EVs with all their tech simply can't be fixed by the local mechanic. Unless there is a written contract Rivian will be at my house within 24 hours with a repairman, I am not interested in that situation ever again. In 5 years Rivian may have a repair shop in most major cities, but until they do, it's a significant risk to the buyer.

My dealer waited a couple of days to accept also. But in between those days I was emailing them to find out what was going on. I am not sure why they are waiting to accept. Something isnt right.

 

[jb56]

There is no misinformation at our dealership. We are getting 4 allocations for the 2022 model. Ford will only be able to build about 15k lightnings for the 2022 year which is a short year. Ford went form 50k to 80k to 150k units for 2023. There are over 3k Ford dealers in the US and just over 2k of them are EV dealers. If 15k was accurate and the allocations were distributed evenly, that would only be 7 per store.

There is no way the math works like this. It's not 15k divided by 2k or 3k dealerships. A dealership with 700 reservations shouldn't be allocated the same number of trucks as a dealership with 20 reservations or 100 reservations. Utah has 48 dealerships on the Ford directory, but the top 10 probably sell the massive majority of ford trucks.

I have been massively disadvantaged in this process by living in Utah and by choosing my very large dealership that I've purchased other Fords from.

Ford didn't give off the impression at all prior to 2022 that this was going to happen. My own dealership said I was in a great position to get a MY 2022. The general vibe was that allocation numbers would be related to dealership sales. At 14 out of 700+ at my dealership (top 2%) I thought it was a no brainer I'd get a 2022.

And now people are like "well there are 2000 EV dealers in the US so why would you think your dealership would get 14 or more 2022s?" Well, because 15,000 trucks divided by 200,000 reservations is 7.5%, and I'm in the top 2% at my dealership which sells a crap ton of trucks every year. Plus, I'm certain I was in the first 10,000 reservations.

You are getting 4 allocations? Out of how many reservations?

 

[EVBill]

There is no way the math works like this. It's not 15k divided by 2k or 3k dealerships. A dealership with 700 reservations shouldn't be allocated the same number of trucks as a dealership with 20 reservations or 100 reservations. Utah has 48 dealerships on the Ford directory, but the top 10 probably sell the massive majority of ford trucks.

I have been massively disadvantaged in this process by living in Utah and by choosing my very large dealership that I've purchased other Fords from.

Ford didn't give off the impression at all prior to 2022 that this was going to happen. My own dealership said I was in a great position to get a MY 2022. The general vibe was that allocation numbers would be related to dealership sales. At 14 out of 700+ at my dealership (top 2%) I thought it was a no brainer I'd get a 2022.

And now people are like "well there are 2000 EV dealers in the US so why would you think your dealership would get 14 or more 2022s?" Well, because 15,000 trucks divided by 200,000 reservations is 7.5%, and I'm in the top 2% at my dealership which sells a crap ton of trucks every year. Plus, I'm certain I was in the first 10,000 reservations.

You are getting 4 allocations? Out of how many reservations?

It would have been too simple for Ford to deliver in order of time stamps of reservations made without factoring in all this dealership or VIP jump in line BS. They touted that over 50% of their reservations were made by people that had never owned a Ford product before like me, and their actions make me really wonder if that really matters to them.

 

[FordLightningMan]

I just got an email from Ford that said there was a problem with my order. I logged into the Ford site and there was nothing for me to do. I called Ford and they said that's an automated email that goes out 7 days after placing your order, if it isn't accepted by the dealer. All Ford HQ can do is say "call the dealer," which I've done twice, but they didn't accept yet. I can't wait til my order gets cancelled cause the dealer doesn't accept...

 

[RavenYZF-R6]

I just got an email from Ford that said there was a problem with my order. I logged into the Ford site and there was nothing for me to do. I called Ford and they said that's an automated email that goes out 7 days after placing your order, if it isn't accepted by the dealer. All Ford HQ can do is say "call the dealer," which I've done twice, but they didn't accept yet. I can't wait til my order gets cancelled cause the dealer doesn't accept...

Or they sell out of XLT on the next wave and you’re SOL since it wasn’t accepted. There is absolutely no reason they can’t log in and do it. Took my dealer 2 minutes maybe.

 

[Bill from King Ranch]

I can't wait til my order gets cancelled cause the dealer doesn't accept...

I'd start trying to find and contact the Ford regional rep for your area and/or if you have a Twitter account, reach out to Mike Levine.

 

[jazzmanmonty]

I just got an email from Ford that said there was a problem with my order. I logged into the Ford site and there was nothing for me to do. I called Ford and they said that's an automated email that goes out 7 days after placing your order, if it isn't accepted by the dealer. All Ford HQ can do is say "call the dealer," which I've done twice, but they didn't accept yet. I can't wait til my order gets cancelled cause the dealer doesn't accept...

I'd take a ride down there and make them do it on the spot given the circumstances. A lot of places will promise they're on top of it, you hang up, they have 3 calls waiting... hour later they forgot who you were. Just talk to the sales manager when you get there. They're the ones that usually take care of this kind of stuff. I finalized my order online, then called him right away. He accepted on his end within a minute and it showed up on my ford owners website.

Sponsored